Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 97¢ · $6K held · ends Dec 19

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sat, Dec 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$212.64

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 96.8¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,274

Combined PnL+$328.88

No3 traders

Total Value$13.23

Total Shares414

Combined PnL-$116.24

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

747h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 93.4¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$70.98	85% 314-57 (371)
macrosteaks	Yesavg 93.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$22.02	55% 3322-2760 (6082)
JSG3	Yesavg 84.8¢	$964.28	$1.1K	+$136.75	58% 14-10 (24)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Yesavg 93.9¢	$571.37	$579.54	+$8.18	49% 2609-2667 (5276)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c	Yesavg 83.8¢	$443.99	$504.24	+$60.24	66% 614-310 (924)
20YrsOfBoredom	Yesavg 89¢	$5.3	$247.81	+$18.18	39% 498-786 (1284)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Yesavg 93.1¢	$299.79	$244.79	+$10.17	45% 2388-2953 (5341)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$29.07	$9.35	+$30.59	35% 17297-31961 (49258)
GA GaditimaCTR	Noavg 3.2¢	$311.6	$3.12	-$141.65	48% 6827-7447 (14274)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 2.2¢	$134.68	$2.42	+$2.37	51% 2116-2026 (4142)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Noavg 24.8¢	$24	$0.77	-$5.18	53% 1577-1414 (2991)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$1,929.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$70.98

Record

85%

314-57 (371)

macrosteaks

Yes

Invested

$1,284.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$22.02

Record

55%

3322-2760 (6082)

JSG3

Yes

Invested

$964.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$136.75

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Yes

Invested

$571.37

Value

$579.54

PnL

+$8.18

Record

49%

2609-2667 (5276)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c

Yes

Invested

$443.99

Value

$504.24

PnL

+$60.24

Record

66%

614-310 (924)

20YrsOfBoredom

Yes

Invested

$5.3

Value

$247.81

PnL

+$18.18

Record

39%

498-786 (1284)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Yes

Invested

$299.79

Value

$244.79

PnL

+$10.17

Record

45%

2388-2953 (5341)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$29.07

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$30.59

Record

35%

17297-31961 (49258)

GaditimaCTR

Invested

$311.6

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$141.65

Record

48%

6827-7447 (14274)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$134.68

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$2.37

Record

51%

2116-2026 (4142)

cowcatCTR<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$5.18

Record

53%

1577-1414 (2991)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

747h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.