Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 73¢ · $12K held · ended Sep 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
12
Yes 42%
$12.1K
$-1.7K
64.6¢ → 72.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
1584h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
31 consensus flips
42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Yesavg 66¢ | $7.0K | $8.0K | +$1.0K | 73% 3602-1329 (4931) |
 3648393489047CTR | Noavg 51.3¢ | $2.6K | $1.4K | $-1.2K | 61% 1133-715 (1848) |
 Parz1vaICTR | Noavg 59.7¢ | $1.4K | $564.18 | -$810.94 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
 0x8712CTR | Noavg 46.5¢ | $930 | $490 | -$430 | 30% 102-237 (339) |
 Optimus-CTR | Noavg 34.1¢ | $454.13 | $367.96 | -$86.17 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
 Car | Yesavg 38.8¢ | $155 | $302 | +$147 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
FL flawfenceCTR | Noavg 72¢ | $679.27 | $231.14 | -$448.13 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
KI KiruaTrading | Yesavg 73¢ | $207.38 | $214.48 | +$5.68 | 57% 271-203 (474) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 27.7¢ | $60.02 | $163.84 | +$102.73 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
AN anoin123CTR | Noavg 40.8¢ | $231.87 | $153.53 | -$78.33 | 47% 476-535 (1011) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 39.4¢ | $129.31 | $140.1 | +$10.79 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
 BlondBeast | Yesavg 78¢ | $101.4 | $98.15 | -$3.25 | 69% 780-347 (1127) |
Invested
$6,978.59
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
73%
3602-1329 (4931)
3648393489047CTRInvested
$2,593.86
Value
$1.4K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
61%
1133-715 (1848)
Parz1vaICTRInvested
$1,375.12
Value
$564.18
PnL
-$810.94
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
0x8712CTRInvested
$930
Value
$490
PnL
-$430
Record
30%
102-237 (339)
Optimus-CTRInvested
$454.13
Value
$367.96
PnL
-$86.17
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
CarInvested
$155
Value
$302
PnL
+$147
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$679.27
Value
$231.14
PnL
-$448.13
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$207.38
Value
$214.48
PnL
+$5.68
Record
57%
271-203 (474)
2B9SInvested
$60.02
Value
$163.84
PnL
+$102.73
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
Invested
$231.87
Value
$153.53
PnL
-$78.33
Record
47%
476-535 (1011)
Invested
$129.31
Value
$140.1
PnL
+$10.79
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
BlondBeastInvested
$101.4
Value
$98.15
PnL
-$3.25
Record
69%
780-347 (1127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.