Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 28¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$585.2

Smart Money Entry

26.4¢ → 28¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares23,533

Combined PnL+$467.27

Yes3 traders

Total Value$561.61

Total Shares779

Combined PnL+$117.93

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

2265h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR troimCTR	Noavg 35¢	$3.8K	$3.1K	-$775.46	36% 397-691 (1088)
0x8712CTR	Noavg 18.5¢	$740	$1.1K	+$376.01	30% 102-237 (339)
3648393489047CTR	Noavg 17.8¢	$685.67	$1.1K	+$389.63	61% 1133-714 (1847)
TBill1CTR	Noavg 19.9¢	$588.26	$939.03	+$350.77	45% 154-188 (342)
tja	Yesavg 53¢	$361.34	$488.93	+$129.52	73% 867-323 (1190)
disputequantCTR	Noavg 18.2¢	$208.95	$320.25	+$111.3	63% 40-23 (63)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 84.3¢	$68.09	$58.26	-$9.87	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100	No	$29.51	$29.51	+$18.08	49% 274-288 (562)
PMTraderAdamCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$19.8	$16.74	-$3.06	77% 830-249 (1079)
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100	Yesavg 68.8¢	$16.14	$14.42	-$1.72	51% 527-509 (1036)

troimCTR

Invested

$3,849.98

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$775.46

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

0x8712CTR

Invested

$740

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$376.01

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

3648393489047CTR

Invested

$685.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$389.63

Record

61%

1133-714 (1847)

TBill1CTR

Invested

$588.26

Value

$939.03

PnL

+$350.77

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

tja

Yes

Invested

$361.34

Value

$488.93

PnL

+$129.52

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

disputequantCTR

Invested

$208.95

Value

$320.25

PnL

+$111.3

Record

63%

40-23 (63)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.09

Value

$58.26

PnL

-$9.87

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

PhongLeXBTCTR<$100

Invested

$29.51

Value

$29.51

PnL

+$18.08

Record

49%

274-288 (562)

PMTraderAdamCTR<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$16.74

PnL

-$3.06

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

GenaTheBondKilIer<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.14

Value

$14.42

PnL

-$1.72

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

2265h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.