Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ends Dec 31

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$941.55

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 98¢

+7% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares14,393

Combined PnL+$914.06

Yes2 traders

Total Value$46.42

Total Shares2,264

Combined PnL+$27.49

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Macks22	Noavg 85¢	$3.9K	$4.5K	+$598.74	78% 91-25 (116)
57 57284910	Noavg 96.1¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$77.2	100% 23-0 (23)
classified	Noavg 96.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$20.79	58% 844-614 (1458)
Bromley86	Noavg 97.4¢	$973.5	$979.5	+$6	90% 728-80 (808)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 93¢	$930	$979.5	+$49.5	88% 2229-292 (2521)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 85¢	$840.22	$968.23	+$128.01	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 89.3¢	$292.62	$311.1	+$18.47	59% 986-684 (1670)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 95¢	$189.99	$195.89	+$5.9	65% 527-282 (809)
Car<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$96.2	$97.95	+$1.75	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
studmuffin6969<$100	Noavg 87¢	$52.84	$59.49	+$6.65	59% 1027-717 (1744)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$46.04	$46.04	+$27.48	7% 14-187 (201)
Talophex<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$26.89	$27.76	+$0.87	91% 929-95 (1024)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$9.62	$9.8	+$0.18	61% 839-544 (1383)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.37	$0.38	+$0.01	65% 1075-583 (1658)

Macks22

Invested

$3,942.94

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$598.74

Record

78%

91-25 (116)

57284910

Invested

$3,928.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$77.2

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

classified

Invested

$1,918.86

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$20.79

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

Bromley86

Invested

$973.5

Value

$979.5

PnL

+$6

Record

90%

728-80 (808)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$930

Value

$979.5

PnL

+$49.5

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

cocococococo

Invested

$840.22

Value

$968.23

PnL

+$128.01

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$292.62

Value

$311.1

PnL

+$18.47

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

melonmanm

Invested

$189.99

Value

$195.89

PnL

+$5.9

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

Car<$100

Invested

$96.2

Value

$97.95

PnL

+$1.75

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

studmuffin6969<$100

Invested

$52.84

Value

$59.49

PnL

+$6.65

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.04

Value

$46.04

PnL

+$27.48

Record

14-187 (201)

Talophex<$100

Invested

$26.89

Value

$27.76

PnL

+$0.87

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$9.62

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.18

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.01

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.