Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 14 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (74%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 74%

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

$-13.9K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.6¢

-19% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 19 top traders (74%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares3,118,055

Combined PnL$-13.9K

No5 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,400

Combined PnL+$54.02

Yes — 74%No — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

181 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

74% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 92% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$18.6K	$16.5K	$-2.1K	43% 561-738 (1299)
57 57284910	Noavg 99.2¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	+$19.51	100% 23-0 (23)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$5.44	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704	Noavg 96.7¢	$967	$994	+$26.5	60% 1348-884 (2232)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.8K	$867.21	$-7.9K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
Talophex	Noavg 99¢	$495	$497	+$1.75	91% 929-95 (1024)
SU supersmardCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.2K	$434.87	-$766.1	39% 46-71 (117)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$973.88	$387.2	+$1.2K	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 99¢	$324.77	$325.58	+$0.82	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$217.91	$55.21	-$151.53	51% 86-81 (167)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yes	$45.51	$45.51	$-1.8K	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$0.57	$39.1	$-1.5K	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$20.37	$19.36	-$1.02	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
12 123987456CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$515.97	$15.48	-$500.49	45% 1906-2351 (4257)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$114.19	$13.52	-$96.61	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Yesavg 10.7¢	$188.6	$5.47	+$7.11	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.17	$3.52	+$0.35	66% 1107-565 (1672)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$20.88	$0.87	+$1.13	39% 965-1508 (2473)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$641.46	$0.03	-$270.59	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$18,647.97

Value

$16.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

57284910

Invested

$8,926.5

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$19.51

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,493.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$5.44

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704

Invested

$967

Value

$994

PnL

+$26.5

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,806.21

Value

$867.21

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Talophex

Invested

$495

Value

$497

PnL

+$1.75

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

supersmardCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,200.97

Value

$434.87

PnL

-$766.1

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$973.88

Value

$387.2

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrock

Invested

$324.77

Value

$325.58

PnL

+$0.82

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$217.91

Value

$55.21

PnL

-$151.53

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.51

Value

$45.51

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$39.1

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.37

Value

$19.36

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

123987456CTR

Yes

Invested

$515.97

Value

$15.48

PnL

-$500.49

Record

45%

1906-2351 (4257)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.19

Value

$13.52

PnL

-$96.61

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Yes

Invested

$188.6

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$7.11

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

DEGENKHANCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.35

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.88

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$1.13

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$641.46

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$270.59

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 19 top traders (74%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

181 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

74% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 92% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5913.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

6013.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.