Aquila Basket Trento vs. Maxima Roma

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Maxima Roma (50%) · Maxima Roma at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Aquila Basket Trento39¢Maxima Roma61¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maxima Roma

Consensus Traders

Maxima Roma 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$44.25

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 61¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMaxima Roma at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maxima Roma

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aquila Basket Trento39%

Maxima Roma61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maxima Roma4 traders

Total Value$989.73

Total Shares1,908

Combined PnL+$49.58

Aquila Basket Trento4 traders

Total Value$78.84

Total Shares173

Combined PnL-$5.33

Maxima Roma — 50%Aquila Basket Trento — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Maxima Roma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMaxima Roma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaxima Roma 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Maxima Roma 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA Bagwell306	Maxima Romaavg 48¢	$479.04	$508.98	+$19.96	58% 4067-2890 (6957)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Maxima Romaavg 57.1¢	$466.23	$474.18	+$7.95	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
└ Maxima Roma leg	Maxima Romaavg 57.1¢	$374.02	$376.9	+$2.87
└ Aquila Basket Trento leg	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 40.3¢	$92.21	$97.29	+$5.08
NA NatoAlfista	Maxima Romaavg 48¢	$231	$245.44	+$2.41	50% 3947-3930 (7877)
UP UpTheBlues	Maxima Romaavg 48.9¢	$132.46	$155.68	+$23.22	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
tradecraft<$100	Maxima Romaavg 48¢	$75.63	$79.63	+$3.99	51% 6078-5799 (11877)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 48¢	$55.73	$43.94	-$4.14	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 50.5¢	$22.6	$21.6	-$1.04	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 40.1¢	$10.02	$10	-$0.02	85% 5885-1004 (6889)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Aquila Basket Trentoavg 45.1¢	$3.42	$3.3	-$0.12	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

Bagwell306

Maxima Roma

Invested

$479.04

Value

$508.98

PnL

+$19.96

Record

58%

4067-2890 (6957)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Maxima Roma

Invested

$466.23

Value

$474.18

PnL

+$7.95

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Both legs:

Maxima Roma$374.0257.1¢+$2.87

Aquila Basket Trento$92.2140.3¢+$5.08

NatoAlfista

Maxima Roma

Invested

$231

Value

$245.44

PnL

+$2.41

Record

50%

3947-3930 (7877)

UpTheBlues

Maxima Roma

Invested

$132.46

Value

$155.68

PnL

+$23.22

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

tradecraft<$100

Maxima Roma

Invested

$75.63

Value

$79.63

PnL

+$3.99

Record

51%

6078-5799 (11877)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$55.73

Value

$43.94

PnL

-$4.14

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$22.6

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$1.04

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$10.02

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.02

Record

85%

5885-1004 (6889)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Aquila Basket Trento

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

AvoidMaxima Roma at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maxima Roma

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Maxima Roma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMaxima Roma 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaxima Roma 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Maxima Roma 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maxima Roma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.