Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 31 of 33 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

31 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (94%) · Yes at 20¢ · $212K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 94%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$212.0K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

18.3¢ → 20.3¢

+11% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

31 of 33 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes31 traders

Total Value$85.7K

Total Shares410,127

Combined PnL+$4.2K

No2 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares7,289

Combined PnL-$604.94

Yes — 94%No — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

31 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

55 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 90% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 94% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 91% · 23

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JS JsramARB<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$122.6K	$120.5K	$-2.1K	55% 133-110 (243)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$80.8K	$75.3K	$-5.4K
└ No leg	Noavg 73.6¢	$41.8K	$45.2K	+$3.4K
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 16.8¢	$16.4K	$14.6K	$-1.8K	40% 704-1061 (1765)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$2.2K	$14.1K	+$9.1K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
CA cashyCTR	Yesavg 26.9¢	$13.4K	$10.4K	$-3.1K	71% 611-250 (861)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$7.6K	$8.2K	+$643.76	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
VI VilgefortzCTR	Yesavg 21.3¢	$262.0K	$7.7K	$-9.5K	71% 196-82 (278)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 19.4¢	$6.9K	$7.4K	+$549.13	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
2B9SCTR	Yes	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$4.7K	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
RD rdba	Noavg 93.6¢	$5.6K	$4.8K	-$848.69	60% 131-88 (219)
KnureKnumeCTR	Yesavg 21.5¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$265.43	48% 400-434 (834)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Yesavg 13.5¢	$1.8K	$2.8K	+$947.83	60% 474-313 (787)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	-$259.25	26% 351-985 (1336)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 15.3¢	$356.9K	$1.9K	+$462.18	25% 185-564 (749)
VO vovatoxicCTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$526	$1.2K	+$681.78	49% 70-74 (144)
CQ cqsCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$625	$1.0K	+$420	65% 228-122 (350)
Nadmi	Noavg 60¢	$747.5	$991.25	+$243.75	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 17.5¢	$779.92	$911.02	+$131.1	38% 20-32 (52)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$290.05	$691.57	+$401.52	41% 648-925 (1573)
FO FolletinCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$215.62	$639.11	+$411.27	69% 423-188 (611)
4751346CTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$411.38	$434.69	+$23.31	72% 1257-483 (1740)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 17.4¢	$380.78	$397.84	+$17.06	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$410.96	$365.74	-$45.22	37% 566-944 (1510)
siickCTR	Yesavg 8.6¢	$373.38	$322.31	-$51.07	57% 767-580 (1347)
StarMasterCTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$217.52	$209.02	-$8.5	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
XieGuangKunCTR	Yesavg 20.9¢	$209	$209	-$4	51% 367-349 (716)

JsramARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$122,587.55

Value

$120.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

55%

133-110 (243)

Both legs:

Yes$80,756.2322¢$-5.4K

No$41,820.0973.6¢+$3.4K

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$16,387.8

Value

$14.6K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,220.55

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

cashyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13,450

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

71%

611-250 (861)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,568.88

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$643.76

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

VilgefortzCTR

Yes

Invested

$262,036.57

Value

$7.7K

PnL

$-9.5K

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,865.29

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$549.13

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,027.09

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

rdba

Invested

$5,649.68

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$848.69

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

KnureKnumeCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,509.18

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$265.43

Record

48%

400-434 (834)

JoeBlack01CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,829.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$947.83

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,146.95

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$259.25

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$356,911.86

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$462.18

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

vovatoxicCTR

Yes

Invested

$526

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$681.78

Record

49%

70-74 (144)

cqsCTR

Yes

Invested

$625

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$420

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

Nadmi

Invested

$747.5

Value

$991.25

PnL

+$243.75

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$779.92

Value

$911.02

PnL

+$131.1

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$290.05

Value

$691.57

PnL

+$401.52

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

FolletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$215.62

Value

$639.11

PnL

+$411.27

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

4751346CTR

Yes

Invested

$411.38

Value

$434.69

PnL

+$23.31

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$380.78

Value

$397.84

PnL

+$17.06

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$410.96

Value

$365.74

PnL

-$45.22

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$373.38

Value

$322.31

PnL

-$51.07

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

StarMasterCTR

Yes

Invested

$217.52

Value

$209.02

PnL

-$8.5

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

XieGuangKunCTR

Yes

Invested

$209

Value

$209

PnL

-$4

Record

51%

367-349 (716)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

31 of 33 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

31 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

55 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 90% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 94% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 91% · 23

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.0%

20.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$354.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

454.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.