Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 28 of 32 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

28 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 15¢ · $106K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$106.0K

Combined PnL

$49.8K

Smart Money Entry

7.4¢ → 15.1¢

+104% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

28 of 32 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes28 traders

Total Value$96.0K

Total Shares631,581

Combined PnL+$50.7K

No4 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares11,740

Combined PnL-$835.04

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

195 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 12

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 87% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlavaUkrainiCTR	Yesavg 5¢	$8.5K	$37.9K	+$23.6K	71% 160-66 (226)
0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$3.7K	$12.4K	+$8.7K	55% 555-461 (1016)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$12.3K	$12.3K	+$11.7K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
TH thebug44CTR	Yesavg 14.7¢	$9.6K	$9.9K	+$253.94	33% 42-86 (128)
yen4uCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$2.1K	$5.0K	+$2.9K	86% 807-136 (943)
RD rdba	Noavg 96¢	$4.8K	$4.2K	-$560	60% 131-88 (219)
ImJustKen	Noavg 89.9¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$222.54	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
PI piepedCTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$2.1K	$3.6K	+$128.12	42% 71-100 (171)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$35.71	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
AP apmtCTR	Yesavg 11.4¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$706.29	74% 64-22 (86)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$700.44	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
TT tttt123	Noavg 86.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$27.79	72% 1535-585 (2120)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 14.7¢	$984.97	$1.0K	+$28.84	65% 862-465 (1327)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 13.9¢	$790.81	$863.05	+$66.58	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 15.1¢	$828.24	$838.65	+$10.41	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
4751346CTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$716.56	$816.84	+$100.29	72% 1257-483 (1740)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$288.86	$675.49	+$386.63	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$517.1	$506.6	+$6.67	68% 2074-957 (3031)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 6.3¢	$190.51	$456.03	+$265.52	55% 1191-966 (2157)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 2¢	$61.42	$447.57	+$303.29	41% 648-925 (1573)
RE rebotsliaf	Noavg 89.6¢	$460.47	$435.76	-$24.71	25% 185-564 (749)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 5.4¢	$91.54	$280.92	+$180.91	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
QualitativeCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$228	+$222.09	58% 1153-825 (1978)
FA failstoberCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$168.87	+$168.87	26% 351-985 (1336)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$109.34	$117.04	+$7.7	39% 1780-2832 (4612)

SlavaUkrainiCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,450.13

Value

$37.9K

PnL

+$23.6K

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

0x6e82b93eb57b01a63027bd0c6d2f3f04934a752cCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,684.2

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$8.7K

Record

55%

555-461 (1016)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,316.14

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$11.7K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

thebug44CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,625.68

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$253.94

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

yen4uCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,074.66

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

rdba

Invested

$4,800

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$560

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

ImJustKen

Invested

$4,307.62

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$222.54

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

piepedCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,112.12

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$128.12

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$35.71

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

apmtCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,143.75

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$706.29

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,584.96

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$700.44

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

tttt123

Invested

$1,224.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$27.79

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$984.97

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$28.84

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$790.81

Value

$863.05

PnL

+$66.58

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$828.24

Value

$838.65

PnL

+$10.41

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

4751346CTR

Yes

Invested

$716.56

Value

$816.84

PnL

+$100.29

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$288.86

Value

$675.49

PnL

+$386.63

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$517.1

Value

$506.6

PnL

+$6.67

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

mombilCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.51

Value

$456.03

PnL

+$265.52

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$61.42

Value

$447.57

PnL

+$303.29

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

rebotsliaf

Invested

$460.47

Value

$435.76

PnL

-$24.71

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$91.54

Value

$280.92

PnL

+$180.91

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

QualitativeCTR

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$228

PnL

+$222.09

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

failstoberCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$168.87

PnL

+$168.87

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.34

Value

$117.04

PnL

+$7.7

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

28 of 32 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

195 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 12

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 87% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.6%

15.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$500.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

601.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.