BMM-1

• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $24K · now 80¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
• Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $23K · now 54¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (50% of 26)
• Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $22K · now 44¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (68% of 19)
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No $17K · now 86¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (41% of 33)
• Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $16K · now 54¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?No $5.1K · now 34¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Yes)
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No $4.4K · now 74¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $1.6K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (90% of 42)

• Finance

  +13 pts

  side won 94% of 17 · avg entry 81¢

  ROI +12%

Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.