Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 13 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (68%) · Yes at 44¢ · $152K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 68%

Total Value

$151.8K

Combined PnL

$58.0K

Smart Money Entry

22.9¢ → 44.1¢

+93% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 44%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 19 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$149.7K

Total Shares333,570

Combined PnL+$58.1K

No6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,466

Combined PnL-$174.79

Yes — 68%No — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

151 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 70% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA HauchnCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$66.9K	$102.7K	+$35.8K	37% 64-107 (171)
BMM-1CTR	Yesavg 22.2¢	$11.4K	$22.4K	+$11.0K	95% 19-1 (20)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$7.4K	$11.1K	+$3.4K	52% 284-262 (546)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 11.1¢	$812.49	$3.3K	+$2.4K	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$944.25	$2.7K	+$1.7K	62% 795-490 (1285)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$1.3K	$2.6K	+$1.3K	36% 2086-3721 (5807)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$789.71	$2.1K	+$1.2K	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$829.75	$1.5K	+$618.98	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
TBill1	Noavg 61.9¢	$935.65	$888.86	-$46.14	45% 154-188 (342)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$310.18	$865.77	+$555.58	66% 1107-565 (1672)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 71.4¢	$810.68	$813.8	+$3.12	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
JJoCTR	Yesavg 34.1¢	$270.47	$356.16	+$74.98	66% 944-496 (1440)
88 881112	Noavg 71.1¢	$287.92	$231.3	-$56.59	38% 567-944 (1511)
SB sbimbg	Noavg 75¢	$164.61	$123.79	-$40.82	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.4¢	$40.5	$89.8	+$49.3	51% 527-509 (1036)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 87¢	$92.89	$59.16	-$33.73	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.92	$35.92	+$35	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
11 11122CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$4.68	$26.27	+$20.8	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$2.76	$2.14	-$0.63	52% 5046-4713 (9759)

HauchnCTR

Yes

Invested

$66,891.63

Value

$102.7K

PnL

+$35.8K

Record

37%

64-107 (171)

BMM-1CTR

Yes

Invested

$11,450

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

95%

19-1 (20)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,415.71

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$812.49

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$944.25

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,319

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$789.71

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$829.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$618.98

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

TBill1

Invested

$935.65

Value

$888.86

PnL

-$46.14

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$310.18

Value

$865.77

PnL

+$555.58

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$810.68

Value

$813.8

PnL

+$3.12

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$270.47

Value

$356.16

PnL

+$74.98

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

881112

Invested

$287.92

Value

$231.3

PnL

-$56.59

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

sbimbg

Invested

$164.61

Value

$123.79

PnL

-$40.82

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.5

Value

$89.8

PnL

+$49.3

Record

51%

527-509 (1036)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$92.89

Value

$59.16

PnL

-$33.73

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$35.92

PnL

+$35

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

11122CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.68

Value

$26.27

PnL

+$20.8

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

korda77<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$0.63

Record

52%

5046-4713 (9759)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 44%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 19 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

151 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (9 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 70% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 89% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.1%

44.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.