Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on November 2?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$268.73

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 56¢

-30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$800.89

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL-$274.55

Yes3 traders

Total Value$63.68

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$5.83

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 84.2¢	$894.81	$627.39	-$267.43	50% 2042-2017 (4059)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$362.51	$513.97	+$154.47	17% 402-1972 (2374)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.7¢	$159.27	$373.83	+$213.06
└ No leg	Noavg 79.3¢	$198.41	$140.15	-$58.59
BI Bilberry	Noavg 60.8¢	$160.86	$148.28	-$12.58	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$39.17	$49.7	+$3.51	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$79.82	$11.95	+$10.07	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$8.12	$10.67	+$2.55	55% 561-452 (1013)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 82¢	$11.58	$8.37	-$3.21	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$15.91	$4.9	-$1.4	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.8¢	$3.54	$3.3	-$0.24	37% 758-1274 (2032)

hello.67

Invested

$894.81

Value

$627.39

PnL

-$267.43

Record

50%

2042-2017 (4059)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$362.51

Value

$513.97

PnL

+$154.47

Record

17%

402-1972 (2374)

Both legs:

Yes$159.2718.7¢+$213.06

No$198.4179.3¢-$58.59

Bilberry

Invested

$160.86

Value

$148.28

PnL

-$12.58

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.17

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$3.51

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$79.82

Value

$11.95

PnL

+$10.07

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.12

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$2.55

Record

55%

561-452 (1013)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$11.58

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$3.21

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$15.91

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.24

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.