Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-11-01?

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 100¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.2K

Combined PnL

$-5.6K

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 99.5¢

+59% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 22 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$17.6K

Total Shares20,390

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No8 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares18,955

Combined PnL$-6.7K

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP sport-intelligence	Yesavg 53.5¢	$3.0K	$4.2K	-$279.09	37% 102-177 (279)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 49.4¢	$5.6K	$3.1K	$-2.6K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 66.4¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$120.03	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$2.4K	+$1.2K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
SH SharkVision	Yesavg 90.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$34.11	71% 1382-572 (1954)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$493.26	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
OL OldZz	Yesavg 47¢	$893	$1.4K	-$47.5	47% 103-118 (221)
AN Anon455	Yesavg 73.7¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$73.35	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 95.6¢	$700	$692.19	-$7.81	89% 923-118 (1041)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Noavg 49.2¢	$3.7K	$627.31	$-3.0K	53% 2250-1980 (4230)
PA pauleta23	Yesavg 96.7¢	$554.38	$496.09	+$6.67	67% 23466-11821 (35287)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$299.1	$312.83	+$13.73	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53¢	$174.55	$243.93	+$69.38
└ No leg	Noavg 47¢	$124.55	$68.9	-$55.65
KY Kyn008CTR	Noavg 45¢	$459.09	$265.25	-$198.94	49% 258-268 (526)
RN1CTR	Noavg 48.8¢	$1.1K	$190.23	-$879.25	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 88.4¢	$282.2	$179.38	-$102.82	52% 13929-12704 (26633)
HRTrading	Yesavg 52.8¢	$94.93	$156.59	+$61.66	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 59.5¢	$94.31	$141.41	+$47.1	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 43.6¢	$150.98	$88.31	-$62.67	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$17.82	$21.62	+$3.8	58% 10670-7656 (18326)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 32.7¢	$53.61	$16.4	-$37.21	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$9.2	$10.2	+$1	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
FO ForMyFamily1CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$4.9	$5.21	+$0.31	60% 433-294 (727)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.78	-$0.02	54% 6427-5413 (11840)

sport-intelligence

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$279.09

Record

37%

102-177 (279)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$5,622.2

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$3,066.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$120.03

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,243.71

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

SharkVision

Yes

Invested

$2,161.71

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$34.11

Record

71%

1382-572 (1954)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$1,173.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$493.26

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

OldZz

Yes

Invested

$893

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$47.5

Record

47%

103-118 (221)

Anon455

Yes

Invested

$1,180.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$73.35

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$700

Value

$692.19

PnL

-$7.81

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Invested

$3,684.08

Value

$627.31

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

53%

2250-1980 (4230)

pauleta23

Yes

Invested

$554.38

Value

$496.09

PnL

+$6.67

Record

67%

23466-11821 (35287)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$299.1

Value

$312.83

PnL

+$13.73

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Yes$174.5553¢+$69.38

No$124.5547¢-$55.65

Kyn008CTR

Invested

$459.09

Value

$265.25

PnL

-$198.94

Record

49%

258-268 (526)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,069.48

Value

$190.23

PnL

-$879.25

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$282.2

Value

$179.38

PnL

-$102.82

Record

52%

13929-12704 (26633)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$94.93

Value

$156.59

PnL

+$61.66

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$94.31

Value

$141.41

PnL

+$47.1

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$150.98

Value

$88.31

PnL

-$62.67

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.82

Value

$21.62

PnL

+$3.8

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$53.61

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$37.21

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

ForMyFamily1CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$0.31

Record

60%

433-294 (727)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

6427-5413 (11840)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 22 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.