Will Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?

14 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 80¢ · $32K held · ended Nov 1

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 70%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.1K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 79.5¢

+48% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 80%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares14,620

Combined PnL+$614.32

No14 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares21,415

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$5.5K	$6.5K	+$1.0K	57% 1048-784 (1832)
RN1	Noavg 41.6¢	$3.2K	$5.4K	+$2.2K	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 35.3¢	$6.5K	$5.1K	$-1.4K	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.3¢	$4.0K	$2.6K	$-1.4K
└ No leg	Noavg 77.1¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$2.51
StudyPrediction	Noavg 66¢	$4.0K	$4.8K	+$809.99	53% 4588-4005 (8593)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$129.94	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.5¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$76.3
└ No leg	Noavg 78.5¢	$4.2K	$2.1K	+$53.64
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 52¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$548.08	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
LA lavendergooms	Noavg 52¢	$822.25	$672.03	-$150.22	52% 2638-2387 (5025)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 67¢	$542.64	$639.83	+$4.05	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$1.1K	$635.71	-$418.14	48% 1064-1163 (2227)
AN Anon455	Noavg 73.9¢	$303.02	$487.65	+$184.63	55% 3007-2438 (5445)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$232.65	$259.71	+$27.06	52% 13925-12698 (26623)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.5¢	$161.04	$202.22	+$41.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.9¢	$71.6	$57.5	-$14.11
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 52.3¢	$322.71	$223.1	-$99.61	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.5¢	$103.3	$118.19	+$14.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.3¢	$219.41	$104.9	-$114.5
RO Rocko33	Noavg 52¢	$200	$163.46	-$36.54	63% 1197-693 (1890)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 44.2¢	$81.98	$81.67	-$0.31	56% 570-439 (1009)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 77¢	$73.13	$72.18	-$0.95	51% 6075-5796 (11871)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$74.66	$68.06	-$6.6	53% 454-406 (860)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 52¢	$52	$42.5	-$9.5	47% 4649-5169 (9818)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.1¢	$53.91	$39.36	-$14.55	58% 18782-13844 (32626)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$31	$29.76	-$1.24	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$25.1	$23.22	-$1.88	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 63¢	$16.14	$19.22	+$3.07	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Noavg 52¢	$15.6	$12.75	-$2.85	85% 5875-1000 (6875)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$2.13	$2.08	-$0.05	53% 742-647 (1389)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.41	$1.31	-$0.1	50% 11176-10983 (22159)

MinevaJCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,487.37

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

RN1

Invested

$3,206.03

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$6,476.17

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Both legs:

Yes$4,029.1435.3¢$-1.4K

No$2,447.0377.1¢-$2.51

StudyPrediction

Invested

$3,959.97

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$809.99

Record

53%

4588-4005 (8593)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$4,326.59

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$129.94

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Yes$2,258.7758.5¢+$76.3

No$4,216.1378.5¢+$53.64

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$548.08

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

lavendergooms

Invested

$822.25

Value

$672.03

PnL

-$150.22

Record

52%

2638-2387 (5025)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$542.64

Value

$639.83

PnL

+$4.05

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,053.85

Value

$635.71

PnL

-$418.14

Record

48%

1064-1163 (2227)

Anon455

Invested

$303.02

Value

$487.65

PnL

+$184.63

Record

55%

3007-2438 (5445)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$232.65

Value

$259.71

PnL

+$27.06

Record

52%

13925-12698 (26623)

Both legs:

No$161.0460.5¢+$41.17

Yes$71.629.9¢-$14.11

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$322.71

Value

$223.1

PnL

-$99.61

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Both legs:

No$103.365.5¢+$14.89

Yes$219.4152.3¢-$114.5

Rocko33

Invested

$200

Value

$163.46

PnL

-$36.54

Record

63%

1197-693 (1890)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$81.98

Value

$81.67

PnL

-$0.31

Record

56%

570-439 (1009)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$73.13

Value

$72.18

PnL

-$0.95

Record

51%

6075-5796 (11871)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Invested

$74.66

Value

$68.06

PnL

-$6.6

Record

53%

454-406 (860)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$52

Value

$42.5

PnL

-$9.5

Record

47%

4649-5169 (9818)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.91

Value

$39.36

PnL

-$14.55

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$31

Value

$29.76

PnL

-$1.24

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.1

Value

$23.22

PnL

-$1.88

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$16.14

Value

$19.22

PnL

+$3.07

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Invested

$15.6

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$2.85

Record

85%

5875-1000 (6875)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

742-647 (1389)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 80%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 20 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.