Consensus PnL $50K · win rate 72% (42–16, n=58) · was PM monthly #709 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$50.0K
Record
42W / 16L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 58 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#672
Source
PM monthly #709
Trades
2,487
Markets
172
Volume
$3.2M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Trump out as President before 2027?No $33K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $24K · now 97¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $15K · now 97¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $7.2K · now 96¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $455 · now 98¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
Specialties
166 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 80¢- Politics
+9 pts
side won 97% of 35 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 67% of 55 at an average 76¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 0% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 25% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 54% of 24)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 91% of 129)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.