Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

23 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 97¢ · $448K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 68%

Total Value

$447.7K

Combined PnL

$65.5K

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 97.4¢

+19% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

23 of 34 top traders (68%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No23 traders

Total Value$444.7K

Total Shares457,051

Combined PnL+$80.9K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares103,426

Combined PnL$-15.4K

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 53% · 15

Aligned

sharpNo 87% · 15

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 23

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA Jan777	Noavg 85.9¢	$36.0K	$122.0K	+$22.7K	55% 61-50 (111)
SwissMiss	Noavg 80.3¢	$50.9K	$61.6K	+$10.8K	66% 476-245 (721)
CQ cqs	Noavg 76.9¢	$47.9K	$60.5K	+$12.5K	65% 228-122 (350)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 75.3¢	$43.6K	$56.1K	+$12.5K	80% 437-110 (547)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 86.5¢	$42.6K	$39.9K	+$5.4K	73% 196-73 (269)
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 86.8¢	$32.1K	$35.9K	+$3.8K	94% 242-16 (258)
BL BlackPeopleDontRecycle	Noavg 78¢	$19.5K	$24.3K	+$4.8K	77% 119-36 (155)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 93.4¢	$1.2K	$13.9K	+$1.8K	85% 605-108 (713)
WongKimArk	Noavg 63¢	$740	$9.1K	+$2.5K	63% 217-127 (344)
MEPP	Noavg 64¢	$3.2K	$4.9K	+$1.7K	64% 633-352 (985)
MO Monopoly_Money	Noavg 71.5¢	$1.4K	$4.7K	+$1.1K	63% 159-95 (254)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 89.9¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$158.33	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 78¢	$229.74	$2.5K	+$497.3	87% 95-14 (109)
FA fastvikingCTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$15.7K	$2.4K	$-13.3K	69% 33-15 (48)
tetrase	Noavg 80.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$33.43	61% 839-544 (1383)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 84.9¢	$930.39	$1.1K	+$120.42	88% 2229-292 (2521)
KR Krass	Noavg 82.2¢	$823.5	$973	+$149.5	74% 452-155 (607)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 76.6¢	$665.19	$778.4	+$113.2	59% 1027-717 (1744)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 86¢	$445.21	$503.71	+$57.72	97% 140-4 (144)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Noavg 90¢	$450	$486.5	+$35.75	50% 415-417 (832)
FortunatelyFestive	Noavg 86.7¢	$230.69	$258.54	+$27.85	84% 133-25 (158)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2K	$213.75	-$986.25	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$688.57	$99.29	-$589.28	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
PI Pitter<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$63.9	$97.31	+$33.4	48% 595-644 (1239)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$292.41	$62.47	-$229.94	50% 1537-1513 (3050)

Jan777

Invested

$35,974.86

Value

$122.0K

PnL

+$22.7K

Record

55%

61-50 (111)

SwissMiss

Invested

$50,852.64

Value

$61.6K

PnL

+$10.8K

Record

66%

476-245 (721)

cqs

Invested

$47,947.31

Value

$60.5K

PnL

+$12.5K

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

Kevindoto

Invested

$43,628.79

Value

$56.1K

PnL

+$12.5K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$42,576.59

Value

$39.9K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

chriszyy3

Invested

$32,066.04

Value

$35.9K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

BlackPeopleDontRecycle

Invested

$19,500

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

77%

119-36 (155)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$1,163.63

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

WongKimArk

Invested

$740

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

MEPP

Invested

$3,197.5

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

Monopoly_Money

Invested

$1,430

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$2,796.55

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$158.33

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

skibabiba

Invested

$229.74

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$497.3

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

fastvikingCTR

Yes

Invested

$15,737.41

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-13.3K

Record

69%

33-15 (48)

tetrase

Invested

$2,167.83

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$33.43

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$930.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$120.42

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

Krass

Invested

$823.5

Value

$973

PnL

+$149.5

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$665.19

Value

$778.4

PnL

+$113.2

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$445.21

Value

$503.71

PnL

+$57.72

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Invested

$450

Value

$486.5

PnL

+$35.75

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

FortunatelyFestive

Invested

$230.69

Value

$258.54

PnL

+$27.85

Record

84%

133-25 (158)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,200.01

Value

$213.75

PnL

-$986.25

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$688.57

Value

$99.29

PnL

-$589.28

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Pitter<$100

Invested

$63.9

Value

$97.31

PnL

+$33.4

Record

48%

595-644 (1239)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$292.41

Value

$62.47

PnL

-$229.94

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

23 of 34 top traders (68%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 53% · 15

Aligned

sharpNo 87% · 15

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 23

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.