Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$26.33

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 99¢

+60% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,462

Combined PnL+$534.67

Yes9 traders

Total Value$105.29

Total Shares10,028

Combined PnL-$508.34

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

209 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BurstedBubble	Noavg 56.5¢	$543.83	$953.15	+$409.31	— 4-5 (9)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Noavg 72.1¢	$367.36	$492.64	+$125.29	54% 229-195 (424)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$110.98	$46.76	-$116.44	52% 284-262 (546)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 5.7¢	$94.9	$21.69	-$73.21	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$138.86	$14.33	-$124.52	50% 415-417 (832)
mombilCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$1.34	$8.72	-$8.78	55% 1191-966 (2157)
FO FolletinCTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$178.03	$8.65	-$169.38	69% 423-188 (611)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0	$1.53	+$1.53	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$10	$1.33	-$8.67	57% 1114-837 (1951)
MA MaxVisionCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$5.9	$1.26	-$4.64	37% 42-73 (115)
RA rated<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$1.14	$1.22	+$0.07	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR<$100	Yes	$1.02	$1.02	-$4.23	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

BurstedBubble

Invested

$543.83

Value

$953.15

PnL

+$409.31

Record

—

4-5 (9)

Dimpled-Foal

Invested

$367.36

Value

$492.64

PnL

+$125.29

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.98

Value

$46.76

PnL

-$116.44

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$94.9

Value

$21.69

PnL

-$73.21

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.86

Value

$14.33

PnL

-$124.52

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

mombilCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$8.72

PnL

-$8.78

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

FolletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$178.03

Value

$8.65

PnL

-$169.38

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$1.53

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$8.67

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

MaxVisionCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.9

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$4.64

Record

37%

42-73 (115)

rated<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.07

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

NoMoreMisterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$4.23

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

209 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.