Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 21¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$742.41

Smart Money Entry

18.7¢ → 21.3¢

+14% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares25,943

Combined PnL+$693.02

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,345

Combined PnL+$49.39

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

1654h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

61 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 18.5¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$251.67	50% 415-417 (832)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$886.95	$966.23	+$114.64	54% 229-195 (424)
XenyCTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$731.18	$775.72	+$72.94	60% 978-662 (1640)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 14.2¢	$342.07	$602.39	+$260.32	58% 1250-888 (2138)
LI lissartter	Noavg 77.9¢	$484.49	$478.35	-$6.14	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 22.1¢	$449.06	$423.13	-$25.93	66% 1107-565 (1672)
BU BurstedBubble	Noavg 67.2¢	$291.69	$347.1	+$49.98	— 4-5 (9)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 77.8¢	$188.53	$190.55	+$2.02	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$167.56	$186.7	+$19.14	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$54.54	$55.35	+$0.81	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$36.38	$40	+$3.63	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
libratus1CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$31.53	$30.75	-$0.77	63% 642-372 (1014)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$20.48	$20.38	-$0.1	50% 357-357 (714)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.5¢	$0.28	$0.5	+$0.21	39% 175-269 (444)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,134.95

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$251.67

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$886.95

Value

$966.23

PnL

+$114.64

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

XenyCTR

Yes

Invested

$731.18

Value

$775.72

PnL

+$72.94

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$342.07

Value

$602.39

PnL

+$260.32

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

lissartter

Invested

$484.49

Value

$478.35

PnL

-$6.14

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$449.06

Value

$423.13

PnL

-$25.93

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

BurstedBubble

Invested

$291.69

Value

$347.1

PnL

+$49.98

Record

—

4-5 (9)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$188.53

Value

$190.55

PnL

+$2.02

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$167.56

Value

$186.7

PnL

+$19.14

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.54

Value

$55.35

PnL

+$0.81

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$36.38

Value

$40

PnL

+$3.63

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

libratus1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.53

Value

$30.75

PnL

-$0.77

Record

63%

642-372 (1014)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Invested

$20.48

Value

$20.38

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.21

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

1654h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

61 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$335.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

435.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.