Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 12 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 2.4¢ · $5K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

3.4¢ → 2.4¢

-29% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares209,779

Combined PnL$-2.3K

No1 trader

Total Value$119.15

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$0.19

Yes — 92%No — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

79 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BurstedBubbleCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$4.6K	$2.9K	$-1.7K	— 4-5 (9)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$1.6K	$837.33	-$710.31	42% 1081-1477 (2558)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$250.05	$251.78	+$2.5	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$181.19	+$118.28	46% 271-319 (590)
viniiCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$284.35	$158.37	-$125.97	74% 2792-1003 (3795)
nicoco89CTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$147.89	$156.63	+$8.74	65% 1075-583 (1658)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 97.6¢	$118.96	$119.15	+$0.19	69% 156-69 (225)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$51.81	$51.81	+$0	47% 83-94 (177)
ST StudentMoneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$27.7	$44.44	+$16.74	71% 828-343 (1171)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$36.46	+$24.34	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$24.5	$11	-$13.25	72% 1257-483 (1740)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$3.3	$3.3	+$2.2	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.45	$0.33	+$0.34	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

BurstedBubbleCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,609.33

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

—

4-5 (9)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,566.73

Value

$837.33

PnL

-$710.31

Record

42%

1081-1477 (2558)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$250.05

Value

$251.78

PnL

+$2.5

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$181.19

PnL

+$118.28

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

viniiCTR

Yes

Invested

$284.35

Value

$158.37

PnL

-$125.97

Record

74%

2792-1003 (3795)

nicoco89CTR

Yes

Invested

$147.89

Value

$156.63

PnL

+$8.74

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$118.96

Value

$119.15

PnL

+$0.19

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.81

Value

$51.81

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

StudentMoneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.7

Value

$44.44

PnL

+$16.74

Record

71%

828-343 (1171)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$36.46

PnL

+$24.34

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.5

Value

$11

PnL

-$13.25

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$2.2

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.34

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

79 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.5%

2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2731.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

2831.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.