Consensus PnL $252K · win rate 66% (1803–920, n=2723) · was PM monthly #893 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$251.6K
Record
1803W / 920L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 2723 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#882
Source
PM monthly #893
Trades
2,159
Markets
3,540
Volume
$8.3M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 5 on the consensus side (80%)- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?No $13K · now 78¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (38% of 13)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $5.1K · now 82¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (50% of 39)
- Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $982 · now 77¢ · in at 77¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Yandex $908 · now 56¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (66% of 67)
- Will Team Yandex win PARI Universe?Yes $21 · now 19¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
2,532 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 56¢- Esports
+3 pts
side won 62% of 1605 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +5%
- Weather
+3 pts
side won 22% of 72 · avg entry 19¢
ROI 0%
- NFL
+3 pts
side won 45% of 140 · avg entry 42¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 59% of 316 at an average 60¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 12% of 567)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 42% of 502)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 63% of 544)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 93% of 919)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.