Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

17 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold No (52%) · No at 78¢ · $107K held · ends Nov 4

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 52%

Total Value

$107.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 77.5¢

+13% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 33 top traders (52%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$86.5K

Total Shares110,938

Combined PnL+$11.3K

Yes16 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares93,855

Combined PnL$-14.8K

No — 52%Yes — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

32 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 64% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 63% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 30

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 78.2¢	$28.2K	$31.3K	+$417.89	38% 20-32 (52)
FL flawfence	Noavg 45¢	$9.2K	$15.9K	+$6.7K	46% 271-319 (590)
mrworldwide	Noavg 65.8¢	$9.5K	$11.3K	+$1.8K	69% 804-359 (1163)
ME Melody626	Noavg 78¢	$9.8K	$9.8K	-$0	58% 705-521 (1226)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$6.2K	$8.0K	$-5.4K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
Ryxon21	Noavg 70¢	$5.8K	$6.5K	+$703.92	71% 318-130 (448)
BiDiFakePolls	Noavg 69.9¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$462.73	58% 182-132 (314)
CL ClickKlackClickCTR	Yesavg 46.8¢	$6.9K	$3.2K	$-3.7K	99% 174-1 (175)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$527.72	50% 5949-6040 (11989)
IC ic4creamCTR	Yesavg 21.1¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$98.9	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
BR brte	Noavg 54¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$735	— 10-6 (16)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 49.3¢	$4.4K	$1.9K	$-2.4K	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
FU Fulgurator	Noavg 80¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$44.66	92% 61-5 (66)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 58.5¢	$3.3K	$1.2K	$-2.0K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 75.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$29.55	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
mountaindewd	Noavg 51¢	$510	$780	+$275	54% 344-290 (634)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 22.6¢	$332.52	$342.09	-$32.94	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
0X 0xa2dCcd83971D56fb4e7cE45C491a968b29a249f9-1771568307503CTR	Yesavg 44.5¢	$605.92	$299.64	-$306.28	70% 31-13 (44)
SL SlavaUkraini	Noavg 60¢	$194.4	$276.12	+$65.49	71% 160-66 (226)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 64.3¢	$371.44	$265.39	+$39.52	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 78.4¢	$264.74	$259.74	-$4.99	36% 190-333 (523)
RO rocky42019	Noavg 60¢	$242.29	$245.38	+$3.09	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$209.12	$211.73	-$2.2	37% 566-944 (1510)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 49.5¢	$444.02	$168.68	-$246.04	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 40.6¢	$209.75	$113.74	-$96.01	42% 1368-1924 (3292)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$28,210.9

Value

$31.3K

PnL

+$417.89

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

flawfence

Invested

$9,161.75

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

mrworldwide

Invested

$9,547.2

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

Melody626

Invested

$9,847.96

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,221.1

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

Ryxon21

Invested

$5,797

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$703.92

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

BiDiFakePolls

Invested

$3,978.51

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$462.73

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

ClickKlackClickCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,908.07

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

99%

174-1 (175)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,180.46

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$527.72

Record

50%

5949-6040 (11989)

ic4creamCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,270.55

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$98.9

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

brte

Invested

$1,617.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$735

Record

—

10-6 (16)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,386.27

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Fulgurator

Invested

$1,786.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$44.66

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,255.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,080.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$29.55

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

mountaindewd

Invested

$510

Value

$780

PnL

+$275

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$332.52

Value

$342.09

PnL

-$32.94

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

0xa2dCcd83971D56fb4e7cE45C491a968b29a249f9-1771568307503CTR

Yes

Invested

$605.92

Value

$299.64

PnL

-$306.28

Record

70%

31-13 (44)

SlavaUkraini

Invested

$194.4

Value

$276.12

PnL

+$65.49

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

ghorrock

Invested

$371.44

Value

$265.39

PnL

+$39.52

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$264.74

Value

$259.74

PnL

-$4.99

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

rocky42019

Invested

$242.29

Value

$245.38

PnL

+$3.09

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$209.12

Value

$211.73

PnL

-$2.2

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$444.02

Value

$168.68

PnL

-$246.04

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$209.75

Value

$113.74

PnL

-$96.01

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 33 top traders (52%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

32 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 64% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 63% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 30

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.2%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.