Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 91¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 4

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$59.6K

Combined PnL

-$61.34

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 90.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$57.9K

Total Shares63,912

Combined PnL+$362.4

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares18,261

Combined PnL-$423.73

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 90.3¢	$46.6K	$46.7K	+$99.31	38% 20-32 (52)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 89.3¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$90.02	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
HO HotDogs	Noavg 86.7¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$150.28	94% 442-28 (470)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 91¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$16.67	85% 311-57 (368)
mrworldwideCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$605.74	$534.37	-$101.06	69% 804-359 (1163)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 15¢	$757.21	$480.27	-$276.94	39% 196-304 (500)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 91¢	$391.3	$391.3	+$2.15	89% 4652-547 (5199)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Noavg 91¢	$320.36	$320.36	+$1.76	76% 102-32 (134)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$266.83	$282.53	+$15.7	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 90.4¢	$443.52	$252.87	+$1.64	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$181.62	$126.9	-$61.76	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
Kickstand7CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$113.5	$107.83	-$5.68	61% 496-318 (814)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$58.79	$55.7	-$3.09	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$42.13	$48.39	+$8.96	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$18.16	$20.43	+$1.14	40% 704-1061 (1765)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.2¢	$19	$18	-$1	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
11 11122<$100	Noavg 88¢	$13.98	$14.45	+$0.56	44% 1401-1817 (3218)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$46,613.44

Value

$46.7K

PnL

+$99.31

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$3,569.93

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$90.02

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

HotDogs

Invested

$3,410.85

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$150.28

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$3,034.22

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$16.67

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

mrworldwideCTR

Yes

Invested

$605.74

Value

$534.37

PnL

-$101.06

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$757.21

Value

$480.27

PnL

-$276.94

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

nonkenny90

Invested

$391.3

Value

$391.3

PnL

+$2.15

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

TheFOMCGambler

Invested

$320.36

Value

$320.36

PnL

+$1.76

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$266.83

Value

$282.53

PnL

+$15.7

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

ghorrock

Invested

$443.52

Value

$252.87

PnL

+$1.64

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.62

Value

$126.9

PnL

-$61.76

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Kickstand7CTR

Yes

Invested

$113.5

Value

$107.83

PnL

-$5.68

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.79

Value

$55.7

PnL

-$3.09

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.13

Value

$48.39

PnL

+$8.96

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.16

Value

$20.43

PnL

+$1.14

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$18

PnL

-$1

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

11122<$100

Invested

$13.98

Value

$14.45

PnL

+$0.56

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.8%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.