Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (47%) · Yes at 91¢ · $76K held · ends Nov 4

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 47%

Total Value

$75.6K

Combined PnL

-$443.91

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 90.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$72.4K

Total Shares79,807

Combined PnL-$172.77

No10 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares34,341

Combined PnL-$271.13

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

51 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (11 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 90.5¢	$31.9K	$31.8K	-$19.38	38% 20-32 (52)
BU burrito338	Yesavg 91¢	$22.8K	$22.8K	-$125	92% 88-8 (96)
SirHarryOakes	Yesavg 91.3¢	$10.1K	$10.1K	-$91.42	84% 215-41 (256)
EA Eatpraylove	Yesavg 91¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$25	57% 766-585 (1351)
WA wan123CTR	Noavg 10.9¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$231.13	39% 196-304 (500)
StarMaster	Yesavg 90¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$7.5	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
HO HotDogs	Yesavg 83.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$78.91	94% 442-28 (470)
Kickstand7CTR	Noavg 10¢	$532.42	$505.8	-$26.62	61% 496-318 (814)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 91¢	$455	$455	-$2.5	89% 4652-547 (5199)
probabilityCTR	Noavg 8.1¢	$265.03	$288.02	+$44.37	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
11 11122CTR	Noavg 12¢	$360	$270	-$75	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
CO cocococococoCTR	Noavg 9¢	$236.09	$249.98	+$13.89	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
CO coco040678	Yesavg 90¢	$229.5	$232.05	+$1.28	81% 80-19 (99)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 8.9¢	$165.74	$162.46	+$11.03	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
mrworldwideCTR	Noavg 8¢	$96	$108	+$18	69% 804-359 (1163)
CO cowcatCTR	Noavg 12.3¢	$105.41	$80.73	-$24.68	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
TH TheFOMCGambler<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$24.3	$27.3	+$2.85	76% 102-32 (134)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$20	$18	-$1	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
mombilCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.08	$0.09	+$0.02	55% 1191-966 (2157)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$31,858.65

Value

$31.8K

PnL

-$19.38

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

burrito338

Yes

Invested

$22,750

Value

$22.8K

PnL

-$125

Record

92%

88-8 (96)

SirHarryOakes

Yes

Invested

$10,108.88

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$91.42

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

Eatpraylove

Yes

Invested

$4,549.97

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$25

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

wan123CTR

Invested

$1,745

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$231.13

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

HotDogs

Yes

Invested

$1,137.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$78.91

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

Kickstand7CTR

Invested

$532.42

Value

$505.8

PnL

-$26.62

Record

61%

496-318 (814)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$455

Value

$455

PnL

-$2.5

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

probabilityCTR

Invested

$265.03

Value

$288.02

PnL

+$44.37

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

11122CTR

Invested

$360

Value

$270

PnL

-$75

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

cocococococoCTR

Invested

$236.09

Value

$249.98

PnL

+$13.89

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

coco040678

Yes

Invested

$229.5

Value

$232.05

PnL

+$1.28

Record

81%

80-19 (99)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$165.74

Value

$162.46

PnL

+$11.03

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

mrworldwideCTR

Invested

$96

Value

$108

PnL

+$18

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

cowcatCTR

Invested

$105.41

Value

$80.73

PnL

-$24.68

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

TheFOMCGambler<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.3

Value

$27.3

PnL

+$2.85

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$18

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

mombilCTR<$100

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

51 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (11 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrNo 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.8%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.