Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $48 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$48.07
-$94.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
68 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $24.32 | $24.59 | +$0.27 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
 solwizzo-onXCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $51.38 | $8.56 | -$42.82 | 67% 347-174 (521) |
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $4.97 | $5 | +$0.03 | 73% 41-15 (56) |
DI Diabolical-Prize<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0.02 | 48% 175-192 (367) |
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $2.97 | $3.02 | +$0.04 | 45% 3592-4351 (7943) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $53.55 | $1 | +$1 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.65 | $0.65 | -$38.91 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.25 | $0.25 | -$14.59 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
Invested
$24.32
Value
$24.59
PnL
+$0.27
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
solwizzo-onXCTR<$100Invested
$51.38
Value
$8.56
PnL
-$42.82
Record
67%
347-174 (521)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.03
Record
73%
41-15 (56)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
175-192 (367)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$3.02
PnL
+$0.04
Record
45%
3592-4351 (7943)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$53.55
Value
$1
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$38.91
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$14.59
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.