Consensus PnL $178K · win rate 63% (383–228, n=611) · PM monthly #509 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$177.6K
Record
383W / 228L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 611 settled
Batting Avg
66.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#681
Source
PM monthly #509 + pinned
Record (90 d)
218/372 · 59%
Trades
8,652
Markets
658
Volume
$3.1M
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Georgia vs. Ole MissGeorgia $7.5K · now 99¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (70% of 34)
- Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?No $5.7K · now 81¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 9?No $782 · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?No $136 · now 41¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
576 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 62¢- Finance
+10 pts
side won 88% of 25 · avg entry 78¢
ROI 0%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 55% of 20 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 76% of 29 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 47% of 110 at an average 58¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 15% of 52)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 31% of 117)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 57% of 192)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 89% of 215)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.