Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 94¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 12

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$14.49

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 94¢

+17% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares9,320

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No4 traders

Total Value$185.36

Total Shares3,707

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Yesavg 70¢	$4.4K	$3.0K	+$1.0K	72% 1106-420 (1526)
Rex416	Yesavg 84.1¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$248	— 4-0 (4)
seal7	Yesavg 90.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$1.64	0% 0-77 (77)
Relaccsed	Yesavg 84.9¢	$589.83	$564.7	+$66.87	— 4-1 (5)
smellyEllie	Yesavg 73¢	$365	$470	+$105	— 0-7 (7)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 91.5¢	$3.2K	$342.83	+$3.37	66% 4047-2054 (6101)
PO Poligarch	Yesavg 86.6¢	$327.9	$314.7	-$13.2	88% 418-56 (474)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 85¢	$170	$188	+$18	48% 1222-1315 (2537)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 89¢	$177.99	$112.39	+$15.15	— 8-8 (16)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Yesavg 76.6¢	$459.58	$109.89	-$43.24	— 1-10 (11)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Noavg 42¢	$819	$97.5	-$721.5	— 2-4 (6)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$60.66	$54.54	-$6.12	40% 3001-4411 (7412)
TR troimCTR	Noavg 23¢	$230	$50	-$180	0% 0-332 (332)
HoshinoAICTR	Noavg 25¢	$2.1K	$21.37	-$414.99	— 10-8 (18)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Noavg 33.9¢	$111.9	$16.5	-$95.4	0% 1-266 (267)

Parz1vaI

Yes

Invested

$4,396.01

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$2,102

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$248

Record

—

4-0 (4)

seal7

Yes

Invested

$1,388.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.64

Record

0-77 (77)

Relaccsed

Yes

Invested

$589.83

Value

$564.7

PnL

+$66.87

Record

—

4-1 (5)

smellyEllie

Yes

Invested

$365

Value

$470

PnL

+$105

Record

—

0-7 (7)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$3,237.14

Value

$342.83

PnL

+$3.37

Record

66%

4047-2054 (6101)

Poligarch

Yes

Invested

$327.9

Value

$314.7

PnL

-$13.2

Record

88%

418-56 (474)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$170

Value

$188

PnL

+$18

Record

48%

1222-1315 (2537)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$177.99

Value

$112.39

PnL

+$15.15

Record

—

8-8 (16)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Yes

Invested

$459.58

Value

$109.89

PnL

-$43.24

Record

—

1-10 (11)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Invested

$819

Value

$97.5

PnL

-$721.5

Record

—

2-4 (6)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.66

Value

$54.54

PnL

-$6.12

Record

40%

3001-4411 (7412)

troimCTR

Invested

$230

Value

$50

PnL

-$180

Record

0-332 (332)

HoshinoAICTR

Invested

$2,083.95

Value

$21.37

PnL

-$414.99

Record

—

10-8 (18)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Invested

$111.9

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$95.4

Record

1-266 (267)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 94%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.