Will GameStop acquire eBay?

29 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold No (97%) · No at 95¢ · $365K held · ends Dec 31

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 97%

Total Value

$364.6K

Combined PnL

$18.7K

Smart Money Entry

89.2¢ → 95¢

+6% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 95%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 30 top traders (97%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No29 traders

Total Value$364.6K

Total Shares383,771

Combined PnL+$18.7K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$5.15

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$10.01

No — 97%Yes — 3%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Late

4320h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

97% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 92% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 17

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 95% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tourists	Noavg 88.9¢	$70.8K	$72.7K	+$2.0K	66% 427-222 (649)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 86.6¢	$58.6K	$64.3K	+$5.7K	80% 437-110 (547)
TH thoodr	Noavg 94.1¢	$52.8K	$53.3K	+$510.25	96% 631-24 (655)
AE Aeglos	Noavg 94¢	$29.6K	$29.9K	+$314.48	82% 18-4 (22)
yen4u	Noavg 86.8¢	$26.7K	$29.2K	+$2.5K	86% 809-136 (945)
Donny.T	Noavg 88.9¢	$11.8K	$12.6K	+$806.12	72% 484-187 (671)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Noavg 90.2¢	$10.9K	$10.6K	+$482.31	55% 79-65 (144)
LA Lasting-Dessert	Noavg 85¢	$8.5K	$9.5K	+$1.0K	89% 563-67 (630)
Qualitative	Noavg 85¢	$8.5K	$9.5K	+$1.0K	58% 1153-825 (1978)
0xheavy888	Noavg 93¢	$10.0K	$9.5K	+$200	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 84.9¢	$7.8K	$8.7K	+$931.64	88% 2229-292 (2521)
archaic	Noavg 89.7¢	$8.4K	$8.7K	+$279.44	85% 1906-339 (2245)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 86.5¢	$7.9K	$8.5K	+$641.76	77% 1408-416 (1824)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 85.6¢	$4.7K	$5.2K	+$501.16	59% 1027-717 (1744)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 88¢	$4.7K	$5.0K	+$367.38	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
tetrase	Noavg 88¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$61.21	61% 839-544 (1383)
TBill1	Noavg 94¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$46.67	45% 154-188 (342)
RockyZet	Noavg 84¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$440	66% 257-130 (387)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 86.8¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$190.34	66% 1107-565 (1672)
4751346	Noavg 87.7¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$153.6	72% 1257-483 (1740)
Slowroasted	Noavg 89.2¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$75	88% 1990-279 (2269)
PA Paul973973	Noavg 87¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$183.91	89% 923-118 (1041)
FortunatelyFestive	Noavg 86¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$147.29	84% 133-25 (158)
TheKinginYellow	Noavg 89.4¢	$800.63	$830.24	+$29.6	68% 830-398 (1228)
tja	Noavg 93¢	$619.38	$632.7	+$13.32	73% 867-323 (1190)

tourists

Invested

$70,756.77

Value

$72.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

66%

427-222 (649)

Kevindoto

Invested

$58,566.87

Value

$64.3K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

thoodr

Invested

$52,792.57

Value

$53.3K

PnL

+$510.25

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Aeglos

Invested

$29,597.27

Value

$29.9K

PnL

+$314.48

Record

82%

18-4 (22)

yen4u

Invested

$26,678.78

Value

$29.2K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

Donny.T

Invested

$11,829.07

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$806.12

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Invested

$10,918.35

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$482.31

Record

55%

79-65 (144)

Lasting-Dessert

Invested

$8,500

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

89%

563-67 (630)

Qualitative

Invested

$8,500

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

0xheavy888

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$200

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$7,809.08

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$931.64

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

archaic

Invested

$8,370.9

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$279.44

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$7,908.23

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$641.76

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$4,723.83

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$501.16

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$4,690.87

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$367.38

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

tetrase

Invested

$4,731.54

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$61.21

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

TBill1

Invested

$4,387.38

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$46.67

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

RockyZet

Invested

$3,359.99

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$440

Record

66%

257-130 (387)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$2,807.8

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$190.34

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

4751346

Invested

$2,249.9

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$153.6

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

Slowroasted

Invested

$2,300

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$75

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

Paul973973

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$183.91

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

FortunatelyFestive

Invested

$1,407.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$147.29

Record

84%

133-25 (158)

TheKinginYellow

Invested

$800.63

Value

$830.24

PnL

+$29.6

Record

68%

830-398 (1228)

tja

Invested

$619.38

Value

$632.7

PnL

+$13.32

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 95%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 30 top traders (97%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Late

4320h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

97% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 92% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 17

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 95% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000No 94% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.