Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $35K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$34.7K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 94.5¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$33.8K

Total Shares35,763

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$903.67

Total Shares16,430

Combined PnL-$996.06

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

3278h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Filobestia	Noavg 89.7¢	$17.2K	$18.1K	+$880.97	91% 59-6 (65)
AV aviato	Noavg 83.7¢	$10.1K	$11.4K	+$1.3K	84% 2440-449 (2889)
tetrase	Noavg 91.3¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$95.7	61% 839-544 (1383)
Talophex	Noavg 88.3¢	$678.53	$725.82	+$47.28	91% 929-95 (1024)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$1.4K	$651.03	-$770.75	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 90¢	$348.82	$350.2	+$1.39	66% 1107-565 (1672)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 89¢	$198.45	$203.18	+$4.73	59% 986-684 (1670)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$166.23	$120.86	-$45.37	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
FortunatelyFestive	Noavg 80.1¢	$99.94	$117.94	+$17.99	84% 133-25 (158)
SI singularitymanCTR	Yesavg 13.6¢	$271.81	$109.78	-$161.02	42% 138-193 (331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.4¢	$37.32	$37.94	+$0.63	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$40.91	$22	-$18.91	52% 2050-1868 (3918)

Filobestia

Invested

$17,170

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$880.97

Record

91%

59-6 (65)

aviato

Invested

$10,115.76

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

tetrase

Invested

$2,819.16

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$95.7

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Talophex

Invested

$678.53

Value

$725.82

PnL

+$47.28

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,421.8

Value

$651.03

PnL

-$770.75

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$348.82

Value

$350.2

PnL

+$1.39

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$198.45

Value

$203.18

PnL

+$4.73

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$166.23

Value

$120.86

PnL

-$45.37

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

FortunatelyFestive

Invested

$99.94

Value

$117.94

PnL

+$17.99

Record

84%

133-25 (158)

singularitymanCTR

Yes

Invested

$271.81

Value

$109.78

PnL

-$161.02

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.32

Value

$37.94

PnL

+$0.63

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.91

Value

$22

PnL

-$18.91

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

3278h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.