Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?

16 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 86¢ · $34K held · ends Dec 16

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$34.0K

Combined PnL

$994.83

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 85.5¢

+9% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 86%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes16 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares37,108

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares12,093

Combined PnL-$813.17

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

1111h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Yesavg 83.2¢	$9.9K	$10.2K	+$277.64	63% 353-204 (557)
betwick	Yesavg 65.4¢	$3.7K	$4.8K	+$1.0K	55% 353-292 (645)
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 93.9¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$446.65	89% 923-118 (1041)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 65.2¢	$7.7K	$3.8K	+$497.33	50% 147-145 (292)
FU Fulgurator	Yesavg 72.9¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$423.44	92% 61-5 (66)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 83.9¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$193.01	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
Udonsan	Yesavg 84.1¢	$848.23	$862.41	+$14.18	79% 250-67 (317)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 67.1¢	$543.86	$689.41	+$145.55	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
0x8712CTR	Noavg 18.3¢	$731.95	$599.94	-$131.99	30% 102-237 (339)
TA takeormakeCTR	Noavg 33.8¢	$1.1K	$472.3	-$627.72	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
funnyday	Yesavg 89¢	$445	$425	-$27.5	50% 3914-3899 (7813)
rabbit007	Yesavg 74¢	$296	$340	+$44	53% 355-309 (664)
DR dromedaryy	Yesavg 87¢	$341.23	$335.35	-$5.88	35% 35-65 (100)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Noavg 19¢	$353.18	$278.83	-$46.47	49% 1830-1896 (3726)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 76¢	$228	$255	+$22.5	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 19.4¢	$130.58	$208.65	+$78.07	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 70¢	$140	$170	+$27	75% 540-176 (716)
mombilCTR	Noavg 19¢	$199.69	$157.3	-$42.39	55% 1191-966 (2157)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 77.7¢	$131.24	$110.44	+$6.7	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
TH thoodr<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$80.7	$80.7	-$1.42	96% 631-24 (655)
SB sbimbgCTR	Noavg 29¢	$107.5	$75	-$32.5	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100	Noavg 32.6¢	$15.84	$5.67	-$10.17	36% 190-333 (523)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$2.17	$2.16	-$0.01	50% 357-357 (714)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Yes

Invested

$9,914.84

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$277.64

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

betwick

Yes

Invested

$3,693.46

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$446.65

Record

89%

923-118 (1041)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$7,670.82

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$497.33

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Fulgurator

Yes

Invested

$2,827.81

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$423.44

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$2,530.64

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$193.01

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Udonsan

Yes

Invested

$848.23

Value

$862.41

PnL

+$14.18

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$543.86

Value

$689.41

PnL

+$145.55

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

0x8712CTR

Invested

$731.95

Value

$599.94

PnL

-$131.99

Record

30%

102-237 (339)

takeormakeCTR

Invested

$1,100.02

Value

$472.3

PnL

-$627.72

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

funnyday

Yes

Invested

$445

Value

$425

PnL

-$27.5

Record

50%

3914-3899 (7813)

rabbit007

Yes

Invested

$296

Value

$340

PnL

+$44

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

dromedaryy

Yes

Invested

$341.23

Value

$335.35

PnL

-$5.88

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Invested

$353.18

Value

$278.83

PnL

-$46.47

Record

49%

1830-1896 (3726)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$228

Value

$255

PnL

+$22.5

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$130.58

Value

$208.65

PnL

+$78.07

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$140

Value

$170

PnL

+$27

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

mombilCTR

Invested

$199.69

Value

$157.3

PnL

-$42.39

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$131.24

Value

$110.44

PnL

+$6.7

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

thoodr<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.7

Value

$80.7

PnL

-$1.42

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

sbimbgCTR

Invested

$107.5

Value

$75

PnL

-$32.5

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100

Invested

$15.84

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$10.17

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 86%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

1111h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.