Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 83¢ · $33K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes83¢No17¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.9K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

66.3¢ → 82.5¢

+24% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 83%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$31.7K

Total Shares39,099

Combined PnL+$5.7K

No6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares6,084

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

2072h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST stupid22	Yesavg 79¢	$11.1K	$11.3K	+$490	94% 412-26 (438)
Barkshire-Hathaway	Yesavg 32.2¢	$1.6K	$4.0K	+$2.4K	64% 1093-623 (1716)
FU Fulgurator	Yesavg 58.7¢	$2.4K	$3.2K	+$873.06	92% 61-5 (66)
Car	Yesavg 79.7¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$100.74	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
KimJonEn	Yesavg 74.4¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$245.27	75% 946-311 (1257)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 54.9¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$684.95	89% 4653-547 (5200)
Udonsan	Yesavg 76¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$112.96	79% 250-67 (317)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yesavg 49.7¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$403.85	82% 1758-394 (2152)
BigMackyGCTR	Noavg 49.4¢	$2.6K	$936.02	$-1.7K	20% 108-423 (531)
bigshort	Yesavg 74.9¢	$661.48	$713.15	+$51.67	83% 357-71 (428)
TheGreekTraderPM	Yesavg 45¢	$362.15	$652.05	+$301.98	60% 430-285 (715)
BlondBeast	Yesavg 70.1¢	$263.99	$305.2	+$39.33	69% 780-347 (1127)
88 881112ARB<$100	Noavg 57¢	$278.78	$114.26	-$157.9	38% 567-944 (1511)
└ No leg	Noavg 57¢	$259.17	$81.84	-$170.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$19.61	$32.42	+$12.61
SI singularitymanCTR	Noavg 81.8¢	$382.84	$84.24	-$300.94	42% 138-193 (331)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 59.5¢	$49.09	$82.21	+$33.12	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
UbuntuTradingCTR	Noavg 30.5¢	$366	$35	-$10.4	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100	Noavg 83¢	$83	$18	-$63.5	66% 955-482 (1437)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$33.63	$12.35	-$20.25	40% 704-1062 (1766)
DebosnysCTR<$100	Noavg 85¢	$39.91	$8.45	-$31.69	89% 1868-225 (2093)

stupid22

Yes

Invested

$11,059.95

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$490

Record

94%

412-26 (438)

Barkshire-Hathaway

Yes

Invested

$1,611.25

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

Fulgurator

Yes

Invested

$2,350.17

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$873.06

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

Car

Yes

Invested

$2,846.16

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$100.74

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

KimJonEn

Yes

Invested

$2,257.22

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$245.27

Record

75%

946-311 (1257)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$1,466.81

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$684.95

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

Udonsan

Yes

Invested

$1,926.27

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$112.96

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Yes

Invested

$1,314.22

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$403.85

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

BigMackyGCTR

Invested

$2,570.28

Value

$936.02

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

bigshort

Yes

Invested

$661.48

Value

$713.15

PnL

+$51.67

Record

83%

357-71 (428)

TheGreekTraderPM

Yes

Invested

$362.15

Value

$652.05

PnL

+$301.98

Record

60%

430-285 (715)

BlondBeast

Yes

Invested

$263.99

Value

$305.2

PnL

+$39.33

Record

69%

780-347 (1127)

881112ARB<$100

Invested

$278.78

Value

$114.26

PnL

-$157.9

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Both legs:

No$259.1757¢-$170.51

Yes$19.6149¢+$12.61

singularitymanCTR

Invested

$382.84

Value

$84.24

PnL

-$300.94

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.09

Value

$82.21

PnL

+$33.12

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

UbuntuTradingCTR

Invested

$366

Value

$35

PnL

-$10.4

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100

Invested

$83

Value

$18

PnL

-$63.5

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Invested

$33.63

Value

$12.35

PnL

-$20.25

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

DebosnysCTR<$100

Invested

$39.91

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$31.69

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 83%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

2072h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 89% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.5%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.