Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

20 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (59%) · Yes at 56¢ · $160K held · ended Jun 3

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Wed, Jun 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 59%

Total Value

$159.9K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 56.5¢

+3% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 34 top traders (59%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes20 traders

Total Value$128.5K

Total Shares213,823

Combined PnL+$3.8K

No14 traders

Total Value$31.4K

Total Shares71,049

Combined PnL+$491.52

Yes — 59%No — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

83 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrYes 65% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 77% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 52% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123	Yesavg 52.1¢	$53.4K	$57.8K	+$4.3K	39% 196-304 (500)
AN anoin123	Yesavg 59¢	$49.6K	$47.5K	$-2.1K	47% 474-534 (1008)
eightpenguinsCTR	Noavg 45.1¢	$10.4K	$10.2K	-$235.47	52% 304-281 (585)
Kettle	Yesavg 54.3¢	$8.1K	$8.5K	+$325.02	53% 241-218 (459)
bernardbulletinCTR	Noavg 45.1¢	$6.6K	$6.3K	-$228.73	69% 987-450 (1437)
seal7CTR	Noavg 45¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$148.19	49% 287-300 (587)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 53.1¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$220.5	38% 20-32 (52)
FU FulguratorCTR	Noavg 54.9¢	$4.2K	$3.3K	-$865.34	92% 61-5 (66)
DR dromedaryy	Yesavg 47.4¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$457.16	35% 35-64 (99)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 17¢	$894.09	$2.3K	+$1.4K	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
DOLLAR-PRINTERCTR	Noavg 28.6¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$726.82	56% 3488-2703 (6191)
11 11122	Yesavg 63¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$112.16	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Yesavg 46.8¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$251.42	55% 78-65 (143)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Yesavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$36.45	36% 190-333 (523)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Noavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$207.24	25% 185-564 (749)
8D 8DDDCTR	Noavg 43¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.07	53% 28-25 (53)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 52.8¢	$706.2	$755.41	+$49.21	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
nicoco89	Yesavg 58.9¢	$681.58	$646.14	-$35.45	65% 1075-583 (1658)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 60¢	$600	$565	-$35	68% 2074-957 (3031)
debased	Yesavg 59.1¢	$211.39	$453.52	+$242.13	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
Car	Yesavg 38.1¢	$305	$452	+$147	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Yesavg 65¢	$502.45	$436.74	-$65.71	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
Optimus-CTR	Noavg 35¢	$345	$430	+$85	61% 1200-767 (1967)
zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR	Noavg 49.5¢	$452.11	$416.89	-$35.22	82% 1758-394 (2152)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 52.3¢	$237.83	$239.95	+$2.12	52% 1665-1535 (3200)

wan123

Yes

Invested

$53,408.07

Value

$57.8K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

anoin123

Yes

Invested

$49,640.66

Value

$47.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

eightpenguinsCTR

Invested

$10,434.47

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$235.47

Record

52%

304-281 (585)

Kettle

Yes

Invested

$8,150

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$325.02

Record

53%

241-218 (459)

bernardbulletinCTR

Invested

$6,620.49

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$228.73

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

seal7CTR

Invested

$4,445.65

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$148.19

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$3,419.78

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$220.5

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

FulguratorCTR

Invested

$4,171.13

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$865.34

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

dromedaryy

Yes

Invested

$2,385.43

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$457.16

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$894.09

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

DOLLAR-PRINTERCTR

Invested

$1,107.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$726.82

Record

56%

3488-2703 (6191)

11122

Yes

Invested

$1,388.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$112.16

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Yes

Invested

$1,243.86

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$251.42

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Yes

Invested

$1,409.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$36.45

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

rebotsliafCTR

Invested

$1,395.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$207.24

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

8DDDCTR

Invested

$1,124.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.07

Record

53%

28-25 (53)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$706.2

Value

$755.41

PnL

+$49.21

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

nicoco89

Yes

Invested

$681.58

Value

$646.14

PnL

-$35.45

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$565

PnL

-$35

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

debased

Yes

Invested

$211.39

Value

$453.52

PnL

+$242.13

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

Car

Yes

Invested

$305

Value

$452

PnL

+$147

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

JAMJAMJAM4

Yes

Invested

$502.45

Value

$436.74

PnL

-$65.71

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

Optimus-CTR

Invested

$345

Value

$430

PnL

+$85

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR

Invested

$452.11

Value

$416.89

PnL

-$35.22

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$237.83

Value

$239.95

PnL

+$2.12

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 34 top traders (59%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

83 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrYes 65% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 77% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 52% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.5%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.