Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (84%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 17¢ · $21K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes84¢No16¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 46%

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$300.59

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 16.5¢

-71% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 84%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes84%

No17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares21,684

Combined PnL+$8.4K

No6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares20,527

Combined PnL$-8.1K

Yes — 54%No — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

2673h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FU Fulgurator	Yesavg 37.4¢	$5.2K	$11.1K	+$6.2K	92% 61-5 (66)
Barkshire-Hathaway	Yesavg 44.7¢	$2.2K	$4.2K	+$1.9K	64% 1093-623 (1716)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Noavg 56.6¢	$4.6K	$1.2K	$-3.1K	60% 474-313 (787)
KR KrackenSrusterCTR	Noavg 54.4¢	$3.7K	$1.2K	$-2.5K	66% 487-255 (742)
bigshort	Yesavg 81.3¢	$813	$840	+$32	83% 357-71 (428)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 72¢	$644.68	$726.65	+$81.97	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
How.Dare.YouCTR	Noavg 64¢	$2.9K	$713.08	$-2.2K	72% 815-323 (1138)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 61.3¢	$522.51	$678.91	+$156.4	50% 147-145 (292)
Car	Yesavg 80.1¢	$466.2	$466.2	+$0	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
BlondBeast	Yesavg 83¢	$207.5	$210	+$3.75	69% 780-347 (1127)
BR browneCTR	Noavg 59¢	$309.2	$83.87	-$225.34	71% 173-70 (243)
DebosnysCTR	Noavg 70.8¢	$206.71	$46.69	-$161.49	89% 1868-225 (2093)
PorxCTR<$100	Noavg 31.5¢	$22.92	$21.2	-$1.73	66% 1482-769 (2251)

Fulgurator

Yes

Invested

$5,184.05

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

Barkshire-Hathaway

Yes

Invested

$2,235.51

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

JoeBlack01CTR

Invested

$4,568.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

KrackenSrusterCTR

Invested

$3,677.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

bigshort

Yes

Invested

$813

Value

$840

PnL

+$32

Record

83%

357-71 (428)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$644.68

Value

$726.65

PnL

+$81.97

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

How.Dare.YouCTR

Invested

$2,852.84

Value

$713.08

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

72%

815-323 (1138)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$522.51

Value

$678.91

PnL

+$156.4

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

Car

Yes

Invested

$466.2

Value

$466.2

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

BlondBeast

Yes

Invested

$207.5

Value

$210

PnL

+$3.75

Record

69%

780-347 (1127)

browneCTR

Invested

$309.2

Value

$83.87

PnL

-$225.34

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

DebosnysCTR

Invested

$206.71

Value

$46.69

PnL

-$161.49

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

PorxCTR<$100

Invested

$22.92

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$1.73

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 84%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

2673h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.5%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$471.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

571.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.