Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $905 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$905.13
$-1.6K
0.7¢ → 0.4¢
-37% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
41 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $515.29 | $294.29 | -$221 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
HA HauchnCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $153.62 | $287.97 | $-1.1K | 37% 64-107 (171) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $297.94 | $167.59 | -$130.33 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 JJoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $68.76 | $83.28 | +$14.79 | 66% 944-496 (1440) |
11 11122CTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $200.34 | $43.67 | -$156.67 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $14.6 | $15.42 | +$1.25 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $10 | $11.25 | +$1.25 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.45 | $0.45 | -$3.12 | 53% 3726-3240 (6966) |
Invested
$515.29
Value
$294.29
PnL
-$221
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$153.62
Value
$287.97
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
37%
64-107 (171)
Invested
$297.94
Value
$167.59
PnL
-$130.33
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
JJoCTR<$100Invested
$68.76
Value
$83.28
PnL
+$14.79
Record
66%
944-496 (1440)
Invested
$200.34
Value
$43.67
PnL
-$156.67
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$15.42
PnL
+$1.25
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$3.12
Record
53%
3726-3240 (6966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.