Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Patriots (54%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Patriots (-6.5)

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (100%) · Dolphins at 47¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 1

Patriots54¢Dolphins46¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dolphins

Consensus Traders

Dolphins 100%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

-$134.85

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Patriots 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Patriots54%

Dolphins47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins8 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares28,306

Combined PnL-$134.85

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpDolphins 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDolphins 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HerdoniaCTR	Dolphinsavg 46.4¢	$8.1K	$8.1K	+$9.05	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$75	50% 1188-1183 (2371)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Dolphinsavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$60	58% 4067-2890 (6957)
VeryLucky888CTR	Dolphinsavg 47¢	$776.22	$759.7	-$8.26	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 47¢	$40.89	$40.46	-$0.43	50% 3947-3930 (7877)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 47¢	$23.25	$22.76	-$0.25	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 46¢	$14.98	$14.98	+$0.16	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Dolphinsavg 47¢	$12.22	$11.96	-$0.13	54% 3099-2669 (5768)

HerdoniaCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$8,109.42

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$9.05

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Dolphins

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$75

Record

50%

1188-1183 (2371)

Bagwell306CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$1,920

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$60

Record

58%

4067-2890 (6957)

VeryLucky888CTR

Dolphins

Invested

$776.22

Value

$759.7

PnL

-$8.26

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$40.89

Value

$40.46

PnL

-$0.43

Record

50%

3947-3930 (7877)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$23.25

Value

$22.76

PnL

-$0.25

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$14.98

Value

$14.98

PnL

+$0.16

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$12.22

Value

$11.96

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

Research grade

NeutralDolphins at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dolphins

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Patriots 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDolphins 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpDolphins 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDolphins 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedDolphins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dolphins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.