Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $513 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 78%
$513.18
-$870.04
2.8¢ → 0.8¢
-72% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL flawfenceCTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $1.0K | $227.5 | -$788.11 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
HO Hourglass | Noavg 99.8¢ | $120.83 | $120.08 | -$0.74 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $68.23 | $68.23 | -$83.21 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
 archaicCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $17.83 | $40.12 | +$17.83 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 StarMasterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $10.18 | $22.5 | +$11.07 | 53% 1857-1640 (3497) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $48.56 | $13.52 | -$36.33 | 59% 3428-2336 (5764) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $2.22 | $10 | +$6.67 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $4.02 | $6.81 | +$2.79 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $3.65 | $3.64 | -$0.01 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$1,015.6
Value
$227.5
PnL
-$788.11
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$120.83
Value
$120.08
PnL
-$0.74
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$68.23
Value
$68.23
PnL
-$83.21
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
archaicCTR<$100Invested
$17.83
Value
$40.12
PnL
+$17.83
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
StarMasterCTR<$100Invested
$10.18
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$11.07
Record
53%
1857-1640 (3497)
Invested
$48.56
Value
$13.52
PnL
-$36.33
Record
59%
3428-2336 (5764)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.67
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$6.81
PnL
+$2.79
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.64
PnL
-$0.01
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.