Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $86K held · ends Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$86.4K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 97.5¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$86.0K

Total Shares88,059

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$464.06

Total Shares20,176

Combined PnL-$95.96

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4073h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AngryRhino	Noavg 96.9¢	$25.4K	$25.5K	+$141.34	69% 133-59 (192)
elmcap2	Noavg 96.7¢	$22.3K	$21.8K	+$215.98	89% 1665-205 (1870)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 95.2¢	$21.0K	$21.5K	+$491.74	85% 311-57 (368)
TR Trump2028	Noavg 95.1¢	$7.9K	$8.1K	+$210.88	82% 402-89 (491)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 94.9¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$105.31	77% 1408-416 (1824)
Donny.T	Noavg 95¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$32.87	72% 484-187 (671)
probability	Noavg 94.5¢	$938.85	$969.54	+$31.19	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
PMTraderAdam	Noavg 94.4¢	$915.03	$945.71	+$29.23	77% 830-249 (1079)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 92.8¢	$671.81	$711.65	+$33.52	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
-Dominus-	Noavg 97.1¢	$582.6	$585.6	+$2.1	69% 349-157 (506)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$505.24	$422.56	-$82.67	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
RO rocky42019	Noavg 95.8¢	$229.3	$230.85	+$1.55	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
HO Hourglass	Noavg 94¢	$164.76	$170.8	+$6.04	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
TH TheFOMCGambler	Noavg 88¢	$96.88	$107.45	+$10.4	76% 102-32 (134)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 95.8¢	$176.69	$105.59	+$2.48	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$54.78	$41.5	-$13.29	50% 1658-1652 (3310)

AngryRhino

Invested

$25,367.5

Value

$25.5K

PnL

+$141.34

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

elmcap2

Invested

$22,329.7

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$215.98

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$20,991.99

Value

$21.5K

PnL

+$491.74

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

Trump2028

Invested

$7,864.43

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$210.88

Record

82%

402-89 (491)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$3,861.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$105.31

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

Donny.T

Invested

$1,183

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$32.87

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

probability

Invested

$938.85

Value

$969.54

PnL

+$31.19

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

PMTraderAdam

Invested

$915.03

Value

$945.71

PnL

+$29.23

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$671.81

Value

$711.65

PnL

+$33.52

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

-Dominus-

Invested

$582.6

Value

$585.6

PnL

+$2.1

Record

69%

349-157 (506)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$505.24

Value

$422.56

PnL

-$82.67

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

rocky42019

Invested

$229.3

Value

$230.85

PnL

+$1.55

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

Hourglass

Invested

$164.76

Value

$170.8

PnL

+$6.04

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

TheFOMCGambler

Invested

$96.88

Value

$107.45

PnL

+$10.4

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

ghorrock

Invested

$176.69

Value

$105.59

PnL

+$2.48

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.78

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$13.29

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

4073h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.