Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 14 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (88%) · Over at 47¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 5

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 88%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.8K

Combined PnL

-$520.08

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 46.5¢

-3% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over14 traders

Total Value$35.2K

Total Shares65,360

Combined PnL-$543.16

Under2 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares15,368

Combined PnL+$23.09

Over — 88%Under — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$26.1K	$25.8K	-$247.02	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 53.2¢	$6.8K	$6.8K	+$36.31	46% 72-83 (155)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$5.8K	$5.6K	-$181.63	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$21.9	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$956.91	$931.86	-$25.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$652.86	$699.81	+$46.95
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$22.04	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 51.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$13.22	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$1.0K	$977.34	-$67.04	47% 497-566 (1063)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 47.5¢	$725.77	$387.48	+$7.68	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.5¢	$259.99	$248.93	-$9.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.4¢	$128.04	$138.55	+$17.05
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 47.7¢	$384.67	$375.26	-$9.42	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$370.25	$368.98	-$1.28	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$240	$232.5	-$7.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.1¢	$130.26	$136.48	+$6.22
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$596.25	$348.75	+$1.95	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$309.18	$299.52	-$9.66	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 49¢	$196	$186	-$10	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$81.32	$67.75	-$0.66	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$42.85	$44.28	+$1.43	48% 303-327 (630)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20	$20.42	+$0.43	49% 4002-4214 (8216)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$20	$20.42	+$0.43	51% 4008-3909 (7917)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$10	$4.85	+$0.15	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.33	-$0.07	52% 8584-7828 (16412)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$26,055.88

Value

$25.8K

PnL

-$247.02

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$6,770.79

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$36.31

Record

46%

72-83 (155)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$5,812.1

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$181.63

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,609.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$21.9

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Over$956.9147.7¢-$25.05

Under$652.8649.9¢+$46.95

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$1,432.71

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$22.04

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$1,355.35

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$13.22

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$1,044.38

Value

$977.34

PnL

-$67.04

Record

47%

497-566 (1063)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$725.77

Value

$387.48

PnL

+$7.68

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Over$259.9947.5¢-$9.37

Under$128.0450.4¢+$17.05

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$384.67

Value

$375.26

PnL

-$9.42

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$370.25

Value

$368.98

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Both legs:

Over$24048¢-$7.5

Under$130.2651.1¢+$6.22

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$596.25

Value

$348.75

PnL

+$1.95

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$309.18

Value

$299.52

PnL

-$9.66

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$196

Value

$186

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$81.32

Value

$67.75

PnL

-$0.66

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42.85

Value

$44.28

PnL

+$1.43

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$20.42

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

4002-4214 (8216)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$20.42

PnL

+$0.43

Record

51%

4008-3909 (7917)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.