Pacers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 71¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 5

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 71¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares14,524

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares14,577

Combined PnL-$50.59

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55.2¢	$7.1K	$8.6K	+$1.5K	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	-$28.36	46% 72-83 (155)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR	Overavg 45¢	$895.5	$915.4	+$19.9	51% 903-854 (1757)
HE Herdonia	Underavg 55¢	$602.57	$592.53	-$10.04	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$241.41	$240.85	-$0.57	53% 60086-52456 (112542)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$137.5	$135	-$2.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.2¢	$103.91	$105.85	+$1.93
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 59.5¢	$205.43	$235.25	+$29.82	51% 24276-22998 (47274)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54.8¢	$205.41	$221.79	+$16.38	48% 59342-63357 (122699)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 45¢	$180	$162	-$18	51% 1797-1721 (3518)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$84.81	$63.12	-$21.7	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$63.35	$62.62	-$0.73	50% 25501-25206 (50707)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$40.14	$39.41	-$0.73
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$23.21	$23.21	+$0
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 56.2¢	$51.74	$57.96	+$6.22	61% 2386-1515 (3901)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 57¢	$35.19	$41.67	+$6.48	47% 11104-12461 (23565)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55¢	$13.4	$14.5	+$1.1	58% 19476-14320 (33796)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Overavg 47.2¢	$11.34	$11.04	-$0.12	49% 3294-3423 (6717)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 44.2¢	$8.85	$6.5	-$2.35	53% 4711-4218 (8929)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$1.64	$1.67	+$0.04	58% 45442-32918 (78360)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$7,076.52

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$5,521.77

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$28.36

Record

46%

72-83 (155)

GamblingOdysseyCTR

Over

Invested

$895.5

Value

$915.4

PnL

+$19.9

Record

51%

903-854 (1757)

Herdonia

Under

Invested

$602.57

Value

$592.53

PnL

-$10.04

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$241.41

Value

$240.85

PnL

-$0.57

Record

53%

60086-52456 (112542)

Both legs:

Under$137.555¢-$2.5

Over$103.9145.2¢+$1.93

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$205.43

Value

$235.25

PnL

+$29.82

Record

51%

24276-22998 (47274)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$205.41

Value

$221.79

PnL

+$16.38

Record

48%

59342-63357 (122699)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$180

Value

$162

PnL

-$18

Record

51%

1797-1721 (3518)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$84.81

Value

$63.12

PnL

-$21.7

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$63.35

Value

$62.62

PnL

-$0.73

Record

50%

25501-25206 (50707)

Both legs:

Under$40.1455¢-$0.73

Over$23.2146¢+$0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$51.74

Value

$57.96

PnL

+$6.22

Record

61%

2386-1515 (3901)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$35.19

Value

$41.67

PnL

+$6.48

Record

47%

11104-12461 (23565)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$13.4

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$1.1

Record

58%

19476-14320 (33796)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.34

Value

$11.04

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

3294-3423 (6717)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.85

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$2.35

Record

53%

4711-4218 (8929)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.