Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 52¢ · $168K held · ends Nov 5

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$168.0K

Combined PnL

-$186.05

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$109.8K

Total Shares213,294

Combined PnL+$869.72

Under12 traders

Total Value$58.2K

Total Shares116,270

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Overavg 51.1¢	$107.1K	$108.0K	+$870.02	50% 169-171 (340)
IC ic4creamCTR	Underavg 50.2¢	$32.8K	$32.0K	-$816.24	57% 2701-2002 (4703)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 49¢	$9.0K	$8.9K	-$75.38	46% 8412-9883 (18295)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 49.7¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$126.86	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
DI Ditto321CTR	Underavg 50.2¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$127.5	50% 315-321 (636)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Underavg 49.3¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$56.39	46% 72-83 (155)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Overavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	48% 303-327 (630)
73 739633786CTR	Underavg 49¢	$663.95	$677.5	+$13.55	44% 382-483 (865)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 49¢	$496.49	$506.76	+$10.27	50% 25501-25206 (50707)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$339.5	$350	+$10.5	40% 1349-2039 (3388)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Underavg 49¢	$249.08	$246.58	-$2.5	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 48¢	$192	$194	+$2	51% 1797-1721 (3518)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$171.5	$171.5	+$0	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 51¢	$15.3	$15	-$0.3	50% 8199-8222 (16421)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$9.35	$9.35	+$0	74% 2423-864 (3287)

justwins

Over

Invested

$107,091.76

Value

$108.0K

PnL

+$870.02

Record

50%

169-171 (340)

ic4creamCTR

Under

Invested

$32,825.49

Value

$32.0K

PnL

-$816.24

Record

57%

2701-2002 (4703)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$8,961.73

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$75.38

Record

46%

8412-9883 (18295)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$6,290.94

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$126.86

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Ditto321CTR

Under

Invested

$5,127.5

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$127.5

Record

50%

315-321 (636)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Under

Invested

$3,973.6

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$56.39

Record

46%

72-83 (155)

Multicoloured-Serf

Over

Invested

$1,814.56

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

739633786CTR

Under

Invested

$663.95

Value

$677.5

PnL

+$13.55

Record

44%

382-483 (865)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$496.49

Value

$506.76

PnL

+$10.27

Record

50%

25501-25206 (50707)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$339.5

Value

$350

PnL

+$10.5

Record

40%

1349-2039 (3388)

HerdoniaCTR

Under

Invested

$249.08

Value

$246.58

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$192

Value

$194

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1797-1721 (3518)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$171.5

Value

$171.5

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$15.3

Value

$15

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

8199-8222 (16421)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0

Record

74%

2423-864 (3287)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.