Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-11-01?

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 68¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 1

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 67.5¢

+50% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares18,247

Combined PnL+$384.75

No8 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares12,894

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Yesavg 44.9¢	$7.3K	$7.6K	+$342.15	49% 167-175 (342)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 55.9¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$254.84	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.9¢	$839.05	$1.2K	+$336.58
└ No leg	Noavg 55.9¢	$1.3K	$751.22	-$81.74
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 54.3¢	$3.2K	$1.9K	$-1.3K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RN1CTR	Noavg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$123.52	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
KC Kch-Temp	Yesavg 43¢	$661.97	$723.55	+$38.49	51% 220-214 (434)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 55.5¢	$598.79	$571.4	-$27.39	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 56¢	$219.24	$205.54	-$13.7	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 55.9¢	$168.37	$159.52	-$8.85	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 56.7¢	$159.06	$148.64	-$11.82	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
LZ lzh1<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$85.23	$85.23	+$0	43% 471-634 (1105)
oieshfn345<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$72.04	$72.99	+$0.96	57% 1817-1366 (3183)
MA manoamano<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$48.68	$52	+$3.32	51% 506-478 (984)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$49.98	$49.61	-$0.37	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$52.25	$29.93	-$22.33	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.43	+$0.03	54% 6427-5413 (11840)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.38	+$0.13	58% 18783-13847 (32630)
GG GGLPL<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.35	+$0.05	50% 697-693 (1390)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$1.24	$1.26	+$0.02	53% 5640-5054 (10694)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Yes

Invested

$7,286.63

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$342.15

Record

49%

167-175 (342)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,672.02

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$254.84

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Yes$839.0548.9¢+$336.58

No$1,333.7855.9¢-$81.74

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$3,173.57

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,707.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$123.52

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Kch-Temp

Yes

Invested

$661.97

Value

$723.55

PnL

+$38.49

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$598.79

Value

$571.4

PnL

-$27.39

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$219.24

Value

$205.54

PnL

-$13.7

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$168.37

Value

$159.52

PnL

-$8.85

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$159.06

Value

$148.64

PnL

-$11.82

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

lzh1<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.23

Value

$85.23

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

471-634 (1105)

oieshfn345<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.04

Value

$72.99

PnL

+$0.96

Record

57%

1817-1366 (3183)

manoamano<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.68

Value

$52

PnL

+$3.32

Record

51%

506-478 (984)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.98

Value

$49.61

PnL

-$0.37

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Invested

$52.25

Value

$29.93

PnL

-$22.33

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

6427-5413 (11840)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

18783-13847 (32630)

GGLPL<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.24

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.