Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid CF (38%) · Real Madrid CF at 97¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 1

Real Madrid CF97¢Real Racing Club3¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Real Madrid CF

Consensus Traders

Real Madrid CF 38%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 96.9¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralReal Madrid CF at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid CF

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Madrid CF97%

Real Racing Club3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Madrid CF6 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares9,551

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Real Racing Club10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares10,416

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Real Madrid CF — 38%Real Racing Club — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Real Madrid CFavg 79.3¢	$11.1K	$8.6K	$-2.4K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
CA CannaeCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 37.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.98	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
AN Anon455	Real Madrid CFavg 62¢	$310	$485.25	+$175.75	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
HI hi774cCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 38¢	$433.23	$421.83	-$5.7	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
fyrsken	Real Madrid CFavg 62¢	$300	$300	+$0	49% 290-305 (595)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 37.4¢	$199.18	$199.5	+$0.32	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 33.6¢	$1.4K	$126.06	$-1.2K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 37¢	$63.64	$63.64	+$0	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
0xheavy888CTR	Real Racing Clubavg 37.5¢	$42	$42	+$0	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
HRTrading<$100	Real Madrid CFavg 78.3¢	$25.41	$30.43	+$5.02	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
GH ghorrockCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 37.6¢	$307.84	$22.56	-$265.11	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RN1<$100	Real Madrid CFavg 96.2¢	$18.19	$18.31	+$0.12	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Real Madrid CFavg 62.4¢	$10.6	$10.63	+$0.03	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 2.9¢	$2.96	$3.01	+$0.05	57% 1048-784 (1832)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 10¢	$2.6	$2.99	+$0.39	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 38¢	$0.83	$0.16	-$0.68	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

GoalLineGhost

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$11,056.81

Value

$8.6K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

CannaeCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$1,190.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.98

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Anon455

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$310

Value

$485.25

PnL

+$175.75

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

hi774cCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$433.23

Value

$421.83

PnL

-$5.7

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

fyrsken

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$300

Value

$300

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$199.18

Value

$199.5

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

UpTheBluesCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$1,366.54

Value

$126.06

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$63.64

Value

$63.64

PnL

+$0

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

0xheavy888CTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$42

Value

$42

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

HRTrading<$100

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$25.41

Value

$30.43

PnL

+$5.02

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

ghorrockCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$307.84

Value

$22.56

PnL

-$265.11

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

RN1<$100

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$18.19

Value

$18.31

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

Forecastication2<$100

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$2.96

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0.39

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.68

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

NeutralReal Madrid CF at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid CF

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Madrid CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.