Consensus PnL -$2.6M · win rate 85% (1963–348, n=2311) · hand-picked wallet · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-2.6M
Record
1963W / 348L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 2311 settled
Batting Avg
90.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#243
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
25,944
Markets
2,827
Volume
$128.5M
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Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes $9.8K · now 8¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 32)
- archWill Trump nominate James Bullard as the next Fed chair?Yes $4.9K · now 4¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 30)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $4.9K · now 98¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (93% of 28)
- Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?No $118 · now 87¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $94 · now 98¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (84% of 56)
Specialties
2,276 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 91¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 95% of 491 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +6%
- MMA
+2 pts
side won 100% of 195 · avg entry 98¢
ROI +4%
- NFL
+2 pts
side won 97% of 183 · avg entry 95¢
ROI 0%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 19% of 145)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 67% of 49)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 84% of 45)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 100% of 2037)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.