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5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 87¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
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Research candidate
No
7
No 71%
$4.4K
-$7.57
86.9¢ → 87¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 87%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
898h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Debosnys | Noavg 87¢ | $4.1K | $3.8K | +$1.02 | 89% 2008-236 (2244) |
1N 1nvoker1 | Noavg 85¢ | $170 | $175 | +$4 | 61% 462-300 (762) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 85¢ | $169.66 | $173.65 | +$3.99 | 57% 41574-31333 (72907) |
 LlamaEnjoyer | Noavg 90¢ | $121.46 | $118.09 | -$4.05 | 84% 2603-498 (3101) |
 GollumGekkoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $71.56 | $81.32 | +$13.01 | 68% 2129-1010 (3139) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $86.5 | $62.15 | -$24.34 | 55% 5498-4534 (10032) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $57.63 | $56.43 | -$1.2 | 73% 13579-5032 (18611) |
DebosnysInvested
$4,127.41
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$1.02
Record
89%
2008-236 (2244)
Invested
$170
Value
$175
PnL
+$4
Record
61%
462-300 (762)
HaradwaithInvested
$169.66
Value
$173.65
PnL
+$3.99
Record
57%
41574-31333 (72907)
LlamaEnjoyerInvested
$121.46
Value
$118.09
PnL
-$4.05
Record
84%
2603-498 (3101)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100Invested
$71.56
Value
$81.32
PnL
+$13.01
Record
68%
2129-1010 (3139)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$86.5
Value
$62.15
PnL
-$24.34
Record
55%
5498-4534 (10032)
Invested
$57.63
Value
$56.43
PnL
-$1.2
Record
73%
13579-5032 (18611)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.