Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
25 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 98¢ · $329K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
27
No 93%
$328.9K
$20.9K
91.1¢ → 98¢
+8% since entry · 25 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
25 of 27 top traders (93%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
25 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Late
4293h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CL Clicker1 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $90.1K | $98.0K | +$7.8K | — 10-9 (19) |
 Erasmus. | Noavg 90.5¢ | $67.1K | $72.7K | +$5.5K | 65% 393-215 (608) |
 tetrase | Noavg 92.2¢ | $36.9K | $38.0K | +$1.1K | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 Dropper | Noavg 91.3¢ | $34.0K | $36.4K | +$2.4K | 71% 1136-463 (1599) |
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $21.7K | $23.3K | +$1.6K | 88% 212-28 (240) |
 Moond | Noavg 90.7¢ | $12.0K | $12.9K | +$912.49 | 69% 1137-513 (1650) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 92.8¢ | $8.9K | $9.4K | +$486.39 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Car | Noavg 95.4¢ | $7.6K | $7.6K | -$3.83 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 debased | Noavg 92.6¢ | $6.5K | $6.6K | +$109.89 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
SU surf | Noavg 92¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | +$313.02 | 52% 381-352 (733) |
BT BTCGambler247 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $4.6K | $4.9K | +$325 | 47% 217-240 (457) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $2.9K | $3.1K | +$230.4 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 95¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$1.53 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 poorersob | Noavg 92.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$3.07 | 72% 1086-426 (1512) |
 wish- | Noavg 92.8¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$35.43 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 96.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$41.16 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 4751346 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $914.03 | $980.03 | +$66 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant | Noavg 92.5¢ | $780.81 | $784.01 | +$3.2 | 55% 79-65 (144) |
 Slowroasted | Noavg 91.3¢ | $365.19 | $391.98 | +$26.4 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
 studmuffin6969 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $200.22 | $210.09 | +$9.86 | 59% 1027-717 (1744) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $82.87 | $83 | +$0.13 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $30 | $30.44 | +$0.4 | 58% 5891-4317 (10208) |
 MisTKy<$100 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $20.76 | $21.13 | +$0.37 | 71% 568-236 (804) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $9.31 | $9.83 | +$0.51 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
 DonationsReceiver<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $4.76 | $4.91 | +$0.14 | 60% 245-160 (405) |
Invested
$90,099.62
Value
$98.0K
PnL
+$7.8K
Record
—
10-9 (19)
Erasmus.Invested
$67,080.81
Value
$72.7K
PnL
+$5.5K
Record
65%
393-215 (608)
tetraseInvested
$36,870.3
Value
$38.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
DropperInvested
$33,968.85
Value
$36.4K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
71%
1136-463 (1599)
Invested
$21,693.13
Value
$23.3K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
88%
212-28 (240)
MoondInvested
$11,972.31
Value
$12.9K
PnL
+$912.49
Record
69%
1137-513 (1650)
Invested
$8,889.09
Value
$9.4K
PnL
+$486.39
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
CarInvested
$7,639.99
Value
$7.6K
PnL
-$3.83
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
debasedInvested
$6,471.79
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$109.89
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
Invested
$5,305.41
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$313.02
Record
52%
381-352 (733)
Invested
$4,570
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$325
Record
47%
217-240 (457)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$2,916.54
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$230.4
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
DEGENKHANInvested
$2,840.33
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.53
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
poorersobInvested
$1,991.64
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$3.07
Record
72%
1086-426 (1512)
wish-Invested
$1,937.19
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$35.43
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$1,548.72
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$41.16
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
4751346Invested
$914.03
Value
$980.03
PnL
+$66
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$780.81
Value
$784.01
PnL
+$3.2
Record
55%
79-65 (144)
SlowroastedInvested
$365.19
Value
$391.98
PnL
+$26.4
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
studmuffin6969Invested
$200.22
Value
$210.09
PnL
+$9.86
Record
59%
1027-717 (1744)
Invested
$82.87
Value
$83
PnL
+$0.13
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$30
Value
$30.44
PnL
+$0.4
Record
58%
5891-4317 (10208)
MisTKy<$100Invested
$20.76
Value
$21.13
PnL
+$0.37
Record
71%
568-236 (804)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$9.31
Value
$9.83
PnL
+$0.51
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
DonationsReceiver<$100Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.91
PnL
+$0.14
Record
60%
245-160 (405)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.