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10
Consensus PnL $1.0M · win rate 61% (25–16, n=41) · was PM monthly #169 · holds 6 consensus positions
0x1057e7d3...92449ea5Polymarket
🐋Whale⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$1.0M
Record
25W / 16L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 41 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1139
Source
PM monthly #169 + pinned
Trades
5,246
Markets
123
Volume
$4.1M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $200K · now 97¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No $58K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $19K · now 97¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No $4.5K · now 98¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $3.0K · now 81¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (50% of 40)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.9K · now 82¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
Specialties
98 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 72¢- Politics
+7 pts
side won 86% of 43 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 0% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 63% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 69% of 26)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 91% of 58)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.