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11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $272K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$272.2K

Combined PnL

$15.0K

Smart Money Entry

92.4¢ → 97.8¢

+6% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$272.2K

Total Shares279,176

Combined PnL+$15.0K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares18

Combined PnL-$0.88

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

3879h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Noavg 92.1¢	$142.5K	$150.8K	+$8.3K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
MA Macks22	Noavg 89.4¢	$52.3K	$57.3K	+$4.9K	78% 91-25 (116)
poorersob	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.6K	$29.9K	+$270.16	72% 1086-426 (1512)
BU bullmarketvibes	Noavg 94¢	$16.2K	$16.7K	+$800.28	97% 31-1 (32)
wish-	Noavg 95.3¢	$12.5K	$13.0K	+$455.01	79% 1176-319 (1495)
Qualitative	Noavg 93¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$143.09	58% 1153-825 (1978)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 94.2¢	$826.51	$856.94	+$30.42	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
IN insidero	Noavg 95.5¢	$614.72	$635.84	+$21.12	76% 291-93 (384)
AV aviato	Noavg 89.4¢	$345.24	$352.55	+$7.31	84% 2440-449 (2889)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 97.5¢	$107.58	$107.92	+$0.35	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
Tenebrus7<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$61.55	$65.58	+$4.04	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
debasedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.11	$0.23	-$0.88	58% 2317-1682 (3999)

elmcap2

Invested

$142,536.51

Value

$150.8K

PnL

+$8.3K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

Macks22

Invested

$52,345.85

Value

$57.3K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

78%

91-25 (116)

poorersob

Invested

$29,633.65

Value

$29.9K

PnL

+$270.16

Record

72%

1086-426 (1512)

bullmarketvibes

Invested

$16,177.68

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$800.28

Record

97%

31-1 (32)

wish-

Invested

$12,509.83

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$455.01

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

Qualitative

Invested

$2,273.43

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$143.09

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$826.51

Value

$856.94

PnL

+$30.42

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

insidero

Invested

$614.72

Value

$635.84

PnL

+$21.12

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

aviato

Invested

$345.24

Value

$352.55

PnL

+$7.31

Record

84%

2440-449 (2889)

ghorrock

Invested

$107.58

Value

$107.92

PnL

+$0.35

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Tenebrus7<$100

Invested

$61.55

Value

$65.58

PnL

+$4.04

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

debasedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.88

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

3879h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.