Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 49% (404–427, n=831) · hand-picked wallet · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.4K
Record
404W / 427L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 831 settled
Batting Avg
57.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1836
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
37,537
Markets
1,237
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $4.1K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $838 · now 77¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (81% of 58)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $97 · now 97¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
Specialties
998 settled consensus markets · held side won 36% at an average entry of 34¢- Geopolitics
+11 pts
side won 83% of 65 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +3%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 53% of 45 · avg entry 49¢
ROI −5%
- Tech
+13 pts
side won 69% of 16 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 50% of 52 at an average 55¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 54%(won 6% of 537)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 48% of 132)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 65% of 167)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 92% of 162)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.