Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 78% (113–32, n=145) · was PM monthly #940 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.6K
Record
113W / 32L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 145 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#503
Source
PM monthly #940
Trades
178
Markets
198
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 12 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No $19K · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $11K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $10K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- New pandemic in 2026?No $9.9K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $9.6K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $9.5K · now 94¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $6.0K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $997 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
Specialties
170 settled consensus markets · held side won 84% at an average entry of 82¢- Economy
+3 pts
side won 94% of 64 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 38% of 32 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 10% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 67% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 81%(won 100% of 138)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.