Iran Nuke before 2027?

22 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 96¢ · $239K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$239.2K

Combined PnL

$17.0K

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 96.3¢

+9% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 25 top traders (88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No22 traders

Total Value$238.2K

Total Shares248,347

Combined PnL+$18.1K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$941.42

Total Shares24,774

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 87% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 95% · 19

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MEPP	Noavg 82.7¢	$68.2K	$79.4K	+$11.2K	64% 633-352 (985)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 87.9¢	$26.1K	$27.0K	+$2.2K	88% 2229-292 (2521)
zb8	Noavg 94.5¢	$21.9K	$21.1K	+$389.78	53% 641-561 (1202)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 92.4¢	$15.8K	$15.8K	+$47.85	77% 1408-416 (1824)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 90.8¢	$13.9K	$14.1K	+$213.58	66% 1107-565 (1672)
CA cashy	Noavg 86.3¢	$11.5K	$12.8K	+$1.3K	71% 611-251 (862)
tetrase	Noavg 96.1¢	$13.1K	$12.0K	-$5.76	61% 839-544 (1383)
JE Jest55	Noavg 88.5¢	$10.6K	$11.1K	+$557.51	75% 1028-338 (1366)
QM QMG-SCALAR	Noavg 94.5¢	$9.6K	$9.6K	+$31.38	75% 116-39 (155)
Marco-Rubio	Noavg 90.1¢	$6.4K	$9.6K	+$638.07	53% 489-440 (929)
Ryxon21	Noavg 91¢	$6.4K	$6.7K	+$311.31	71% 318-130 (448)
IN insidero	Noavg 91.3¢	$4.8K	$5.1K	+$221.74	76% 291-93 (384)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93.8¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$112.47	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
KR Krass	Noavg 87.7¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$230.84	74% 452-155 (607)
0X 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941	Noavg 87¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$236.57	76% 145-47 (192)
Roflan-ludoman	Noavg 86¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$201	62% 649-396 (1045)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 90.5¢	$978.19	$1.0K	+$23.16	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 8.3¢	$1.8K	$877.91	-$949.46	56% 973-770 (1743)
Slowroasted	Noavg 92.8¢	$564.86	$583.7	+$19.75	88% 1990-279 (2269)
Talophex	Noavg 92.5¢	$231.25	$239.75	+$8.88	91% 929-95 (1024)
2B9S	Noavg 35¢	$52.75	$144.55	+$92.02	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 16¢	$0.28	$61.57	-$149.87	47% 217-240 (457)
Cungly<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$57.75	$58.42	+$0.76	63% 672-398 (1070)
BR browne<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$4.73	$4.8	+$0.09	71% 173-70 (243)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$2.49	$1.94	-$0.48	83% 3802-802 (4604)

MEPP

Invested

$68,222.89

Value

$79.4K

PnL

+$11.2K

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$26,149.13

Value

$27.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

zb8

Invested

$21,922.66

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$389.78

Record

53%

641-561 (1202)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$15,787.85

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$47.85

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$13,867.76

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$213.58

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

cashy

Invested

$11,509.93

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

71%

611-251 (862)

tetrase

Invested

$13,113.69

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$5.76

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Jest55

Invested

$10,578.76

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$557.51

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

QMG-SCALAR

Invested

$9,559.5

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$31.38

Record

75%

116-39 (155)

Marco-Rubio

Invested

$6,433.57

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$638.07

Record

53%

489-440 (929)

Ryxon21

Invested

$6,409.6

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$311.31

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

insidero

Invested

$4,842.33

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$221.74

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$4,754.01

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$112.47

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Krass

Invested

$2,645.97

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$230.84

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941

Invested

$2,270.26

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$236.57

Record

76%

145-47 (192)

Roflan-ludoman

Invested

$1,719.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$201

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$978.19

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.16

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,827.38

Value

$877.91

PnL

-$949.46

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Slowroasted

Invested

$564.86

Value

$583.7

PnL

+$19.75

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

Talophex

Invested

$231.25

Value

$239.75

PnL

+$8.88

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

2B9S

Invested

$52.75

Value

$144.55

PnL

+$92.02

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$61.57

PnL

-$149.87

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

Cungly<$100

Invested

$57.75

Value

$58.42

PnL

+$0.76

Record

63%

672-398 (1070)

browne<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.09

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.49

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$0.48

Record

83%

3802-802 (4604)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

22 of 25 top traders (88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

22 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 87% · 15

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 95% · 19

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.