New pandemic in 2026?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 97¢ · $53K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$52.8K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 97¢

+8% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$52.8K

Total Shares54,404

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.23

Total Shares483

Combined PnL-$49.8

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-SCALAR	Noavg 88.7¢	$9.6K	$9.9K	+$320.99	75% 116-39 (155)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 88¢	$9.2K	$9.7K	+$508.11	77% 1408-416 (1824)
debased	Noavg 87.8¢	$6.8K	$7.5K	+$737.16	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 94.6¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$157.97	66% 1107-565 (1672)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 94¢	$4.6K	$4.8K	+$149.51	88% 212-28 (240)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 92.7¢	$3.2K	$4.1K	+$220.24	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Talophex	Noavg 93.4¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$96.48	91% 929-95 (1024)
ImJustKen	Noavg 87.1¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$263.84	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
JE Jest55	Noavg 87.6¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$171.97	75% 1028-338 (1366)
wish-	Noavg 92.4¢	$833	$873.45	+$40.45	79% 1176-319 (1495)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 90¢	$67.81	$73.12	+$5.31	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
Slowroasted<$100	Noavg 88¢	$66	$72.79	+$6.79	88% 1990-279 (2269)
HorribleWorkCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$64.04	$14.23	-$49.8	60% 465-309 (774)

QMG-SCALAR

Invested

$9,572.84

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$320.99

Record

75%

116-39 (155)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$9,172.68

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$508.11

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

debased

Invested

$6,810.39

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$737.16

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$6,739.83

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$157.97

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$4,607.98

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$149.51

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$3,165.48

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$220.24

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Talophex

Invested

$3,785.53

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$96.48

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

ImJustKen

Invested

$3,020.13

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$263.84

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

Jest55

Invested

$1,585.27

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$171.97

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

wish-

Invested

$833

Value

$873.45

PnL

+$40.45

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$67.81

Value

$73.12

PnL

+$5.31

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Slowroasted<$100

Invested

$66

Value

$72.79

PnL

+$6.79

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

HorribleWorkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.04

Value

$14.23

PnL

-$49.8

Record

60%

465-309 (774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Late

4826h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.