Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

29 of 37 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 94¢ · $396K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$396.4K

Combined PnL

$43.5K

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 93.5¢

+25% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 37 top traders (78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No29 traders

Total Value$388.4K

Total Shares408,893

Combined PnL+$77.0K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares133,269

Combined PnL$-33.5K

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 73% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 20

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 85% · 27

Aligned

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CQ cqs	Noavg 61.2¢	$114.6K	$174.0K	+$59.4K	65% 228-122 (350)
TH thoodr	Noavg 92.1¢	$51.9K	$52.3K	+$389.5	96% 631-24 (655)
How.Dare.You	Noavg 80.9¢	$41.9K	$44.0K	+$5.5K	72% 815-323 (1138)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 92.7¢	$15.5K	$15.2K	+$125.55	77% 1408-416 (1824)
OraculumNobius	Noavg 93.3¢	$14.0K	$14.2K	+$100.03	90% 5487-612 (6099)
SirHarryOakes	Noavg 67.9¢	$10.6K	$14.0K	+$3.8K	84% 215-41 (256)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 92.2¢	$41.0K	$12.5K	+$452.95	77% 632-185 (817)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 92.8¢	$11.1K	$11.4K	+$140	85% 605-108 (713)
QM QMG-SCALAR	Noavg 93.5¢	$9.3K	$9.5K	+$0.01	75% 116-39 (155)
bamesjond	Noavg 72.2¢	$5.4K	$6.9K	+$1.5K	80% 1055-259 (1314)
gopfan2	Noavg 61.1¢	$4.1K	$6.3K	+$2.2K	51% 901-875 (1776)
MEPP	Noavg 62.8¢	$4.1K	$6.1K	+$2.0K	64% 633-352 (985)
HO hopedieslastCTR	Yesavg 34.6¢	$33.2K	$5.8K	$-27.4K	59% 118-81 (199)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 93¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$50	88% 212-28 (240)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 78¢	$311.98	$3.7K	+$616	87% 95-14 (109)
Porx	Noavg 72.9¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$52.6	66% 1482-769 (2251)
tetrase	Noavg 91.6¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$71	61% 839-544 (1383)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 92¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$38.62	97% 140-4 (144)
archaic	Noavg 84.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$25.21	85% 1906-339 (2245)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 91.5¢	$941.15	$1.6K	+$114.43	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
BigMackyGCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$871.57	$781.63	-$89.94	20% 108-423 (531)
4751346	Noavg 78.1¢	$510.71	$570.97	+$60.26	72% 1257-483 (1740)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 76¢	$421.8	$527.25	+$99.9	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 93¢	$511.5	$522.5	+$5.5	59% 1027-717 (1744)
SE SecondWindCapitalCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$3.1K	$507.09	$-2.6K	36% 25-45 (70)

cqs

Invested

$114,563.86

Value

$174.0K

PnL

+$59.4K

Record

65%

228-122 (350)

thoodr

Invested

$51,895.94

Value

$52.3K

PnL

+$389.5

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

How.Dare.You

Invested

$41,902.94

Value

$44.0K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

72%

815-323 (1138)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$15,481.96

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$125.55

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

OraculumNobius

Invested

$14,000

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$100.03

Record

90%

5487-612 (6099)

SirHarryOakes

Invested

$10,621.57

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

alwaysOn

Invested

$41,049.34

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$452.95

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$11,139.99

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$140

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

QMG-SCALAR

Invested

$9,349.99

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$0.01

Record

75%

116-39 (155)

bamesjond

Invested

$5,376.21

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

80%

1055-259 (1314)

gopfan2

Invested

$4,115.72

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

51%

901-875 (1776)

MEPP

Invested

$4,082.86

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

hopedieslastCTR

Yes

Invested

$33,225.54

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-27.4K

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$4,649.96

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$50

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

skibabiba

Invested

$311.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$616

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

Porx

Invested

$3,227.18

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$52.6

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

tetrase

Invested

$2,783.23

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$71

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$1,776.41

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$38.62

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

archaic

Invested

$1,692.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$25.21

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$941.15

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$114.43

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

BigMackyGCTR

Yes

Invested

$871.57

Value

$781.63

PnL

-$89.94

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

4751346

Invested

$510.71

Value

$570.97

PnL

+$60.26

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

cocococococo

Invested

$421.8

Value

$527.25

PnL

+$99.9

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$511.5

Value

$522.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

SecondWindCapitalCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,127.08

Value

$507.09

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

36%

25-45 (70)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

29 of 37 top traders (78%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

29 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 73% · 11

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 20

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 85% · 27

Aligned

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.5%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.